Amiens 1-2 Bordeaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bordeaux at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amiens vs Bordeaux fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Bordeaux travel to Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne to take on Amiens. The game is scheduled for Monday 27 February 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Amiens stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Amiens are significantly better at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Bordeaux have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bordeaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Bordeaux have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bordeaux are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Amiens, 0 for Bordeaux and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Amiens in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Bordeaux in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 48% versus Bordeaux 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 38% | Bordeaux 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.17 xG and Bordeaux 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.910 / defence 1.065 | Bordeaux attack 1.156 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.176 / away 0.999. Data: 61 Amiens games / 24 Bordeaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 33% | Draw 30% | Bordeaux 36%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Bordeaux 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bordeaux as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bordeaux offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Amiens 50% | Bordeaux 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Bordeaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Monday 27 Feb 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 33% | Draw 30% | Bordeaux 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Amiens 1.17 / Bordeaux 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.910 / def 1.065 | Bordeaux attack 1.156 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.176 / away 0.999 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Bordeaux xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Bordeaux kick off?
Amiens vs Bordeaux kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 27 February 2023 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Bordeaux?
Amiens 1 - 2 Bordeaux.
Where is Amiens vs Bordeaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Bordeaux part of?
Amiens vs Bordeaux is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Bordeaux?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 33% chance of winning, Bordeaux a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Bordeaux?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Amiens and Bordeaux will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Bordeaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Bordeaux?
Record (1 meetings): Amiens 0W | Draws 1 | Bordeaux 0W.
What form are Amiens and Bordeaux in?
Amiens (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Bordeaux (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Amiens's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Bordeaux's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Bordeaux's attack versus Amiens's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
33%
3.00
30%
3.30
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.40
1.23
Bordeaux xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
10%
10.28
11%
8.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.2 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Bordeaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Amiens and Bordeaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Amiens and 1.23 for Bordeaux, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Bordeaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Amiens come into this having played 61 games, going 18W 23D 20L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-L. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bordeaux sit at 1.20 PPG from 61 outings (18W 19D 24L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Bordeaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Amiens on 1.26 PPG, Bordeaux on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Amiens's home form reads 12W 9D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Bordeaux have taken 1.07 points per game from 30 outings (8W 8D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amiens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Amiens are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Bordeaux are on 1.41 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bordeaux in 61%.
Last 61 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Bordeaux
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Bordeaux in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 18W 23D 20L in their last 61 games (1.26 PPG), while Bordeaux have gone 18W 19D 24L in their last 61 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Bordeaux away?
Amiens's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.50 PPG; Bordeaux away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Amiens or Bordeaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bordeaux in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Amiens's record when hosting Bordeaux specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Amiens
2
Draws
2
Bordeaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Bordeaux?
From 4 meetings on record, Amiens have won 0, Bordeaux have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Bordeaux last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2024, when Amiens 1-1 Bordeaux.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Bordeaux?
Bordeaux have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Amiens see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 40%, Bordeaux 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Amiens) and 70% (Bordeaux). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Amiens have failed to score in 33% of games; Bordeaux in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Bordeaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Bordeaux?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Amiens's recent matches and 57% of Bordeaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Bordeaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Amiens's matches and 70% of Bordeaux's.
Do Amiens and Bordeaux tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Bordeaux in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bordeaux edge out Amiens 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bordeaux beat Amiens 1-2 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.17 xG and Bordeaux 1.23 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.91 / defence 1.06 against Bordeaux attack 1.16 / defence 1.09, drawn from 61/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 33% | Draw 30% | Bordeaux 36%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 38%, Bordeaux 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Bordeaux's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.26 PPG, Bordeaux 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bordeaux win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bordeaux (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.