Bordeaux 1-1 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bordeaux at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Saint Etienne travel to Stade Matmut-Atlantique to take on Bordeaux. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 March 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Bordeaux have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bordeaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bordeaux at Stade Matmut-Atlantique this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Saint Etienne stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Saint Etienne away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Bordeaux) versus 1.90 (Saint Etienne). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Bordeaux register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Saint Etienne in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Bordeaux, 1 for Saint Etienne and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2022, ended 0–2 with Saint Etienne winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Bordeaux in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bordeaux 60% and Saint Etienne 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bordeaux 59% | Saint Etienne 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 1.52 xG and Saint Etienne 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 1.069 / defence 1.068 | Saint Etienne attack 0.985 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.174 / away 1.006. Saint Etienne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing Bordeaux's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Bordeaux games / 25 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 47% | Draw 28% | Saint Etienne 25%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Saint Etienne 4.00. Bordeaux hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bordeaux at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bordeaux offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bordeaux 60% | Saint Etienne 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Mar 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 47% | Draw 28% | Saint Etienne 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Bordeaux 1.52 / Saint Etienne 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 1.069 / def 1.068 | Saint Etienne attack 0.985 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.174 / away 1.006 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Saint Etienne xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 March 2023 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What was the final score in Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne?
Bordeaux 1 - 1 Saint Etienne.
Where is Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne part of?
Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 47% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Bordeaux and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Saint Etienne?
Record (3 meetings): Bordeaux 1W | Draws 1 | Saint Etienne 1W.
What form are Bordeaux and Saint Etienne in?
Bordeaux (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Saint Etienne (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bordeaux's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Saint Etienne's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Saint Etienne's attack versus Bordeaux's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
47%
2.14
28%
3.57
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
2.58
1.06
Saint Etienne xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
16%
6.18
6%
18.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.2 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Bordeaux and 1.06 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bordeaux come into this having played 63 games, going 19W 19D 25L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Bordeaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Saint Etienne sit at 1.03 PPG from 63 outings (16W 17D 30L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bordeaux on 1.21 PPG, Saint Etienne on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bordeaux's home form reads 10W 10D 11L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Saint Etienne have taken 0.84 points per game from 31 outings (6W 8D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bordeaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bordeaux are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.24 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bordeaux have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Saint Etienne in 63%.
Last 63 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bordeaux and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Bordeaux have gone 19W 19D 25L in their last 63 games (1.21 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 16W 17D 30L in their last 63 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bordeaux at home or Saint Etienne away?
Bordeaux's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bordeaux at home: 1.29 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bordeaux and Saint Etienne runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bordeaux's record when hosting Saint Etienne specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Bordeaux
3
Draws
2
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Saint Etienne?
From 6 meetings on record, Bordeaux have won 1, Saint Etienne have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Saint Etienne 2-1 Bordeaux.
Who has won more matches between Bordeaux and Saint Etienne?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bordeaux 61%, Saint Etienne 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Bordeaux) and 55% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Bordeaux have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bordeaux play Saint Etienne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Bordeaux's games and 64% of Saint Etienne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bordeaux vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Bordeaux's recent games and 55% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bordeaux and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Bordeaux have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bordeaux and Saint Etienne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bordeaux and Saint Etienne finished level at 1-1 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 1.52 xG and Saint Etienne 1.06 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 1.07 / defence 1.07 against Saint Etienne attack 0.98 / defence 1.21, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 47% | Draw 28% | Saint Etienne 25%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bordeaux 59%, Saint Etienne 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bordeaux's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bordeaux 1.21 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.