Guingamp 1-2 Caen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Caen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Guingamp and Caen meet at Stade du Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 February 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Guingamp (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Guingamp have posted 2W 2D 6L at Stade du Roudourou — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Caen have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Caen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Caen have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Guingamp 1W, Caen 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 1–4 with Caen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Guingamp half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Caen half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 60% versus Caen 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 48% | Caen 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.22 xG and Caen 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.056 / defence 1.418 | Caen attack 0.829 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.139 / away 1.005. Data: 62 Guingamp games / 62 Caen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 36% | Draw 31% | Caen 34%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Caen 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 60% | Caen 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Caen | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Feb 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 36% | Draw 31% | Caen 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Guingamp 1.22 / Caen 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.056 / def 1.418 | Caen attack 0.829 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.139 / away 1.005 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Caen xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Caen kick off?
Guingamp vs Caen kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 25 February 2023 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Caen?
Guingamp 1 - 2 Caen.
Where is Guingamp vs Caen being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Caen part of?
Guingamp vs Caen is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Caen?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 36% chance of winning, Caen a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Caen?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Guingamp and Caen will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Caen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Caen?
Record (3 meetings): Guingamp 1W | Draws 0 | Caen 2W.
What form are Guingamp and Caen in?
Guingamp (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Caen (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Guingamp's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Caen's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. Flip it around — Caen's attack (0.83x) against Guingamp's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
36%
2.80
31%
3.26
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.41
1.18
Caen xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
11%
9.12
10%
10.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.7 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.0 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Caen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Caen expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.18 for Caen, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Caen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Guingamp's recent record stands at 23W 20D 19L from 62 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Caen, meanwhile, have gone 22W 20D 20L across 62 games — 1.39 PPG, with D-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Caen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Guingamp against 1.39 for Caen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Guingamp have managed 12W 9D 10L from 31 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Caen's away record stands at 6W 13D 12L across 31 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Guingamp are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Caen are on 1.27 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Caen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Caen in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 23W 20D 19L in their last 62 games (1.44 PPG), while Caen have gone 22W 20D 20L in their last 62 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Caen away?
Guingamp's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.45 PPG; Caen away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Guingamp have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Caen won 4-1 on 20 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guingamp have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Caen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Guingamp
0
Draws
3
Caen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Caen?
From 8 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 5, Caen have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Caen last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2025, when Caen 0-1 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Caen?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Caen see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 68%, Caen 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Guingamp) and 32% (Caen).
On the defensive side: Caen in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Caen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Caen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Guingamp's games and 52% of Caen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guingamp vs Caen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Guingamp's recent games and 32% of Caen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Caen tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Caen in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Caen defy the odds to beat Guingamp 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Caen beat Guingamp 1-2 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.22 xG and Caen 1.18 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Caen outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.06 / defence 1.42 against Caen attack 0.83 / defence 1.02, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 36% | Draw 31% | Caen 34%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Caen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 48%, Caen 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Caen's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.44 PPG, Caen 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Caen win broke the near-deadlock. Caen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.