Annecy 2-0 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 36%, yet in-form Annecy provide a compelling counter-argument — this Annecy vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Amiens travel to Parc des Sports to take on Annecy. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 February 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Annecy — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy's home record at Parc des Sports: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parc des Sports. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Amiens stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Annecy have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Annecy have won 0, Amiens 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with Amiens winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Annecy in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Amiens in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 35% versus Amiens 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Annecy 35% | Amiens 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.03 xG and Amiens 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.924 / defence 0.898 | Amiens attack 1.185 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.181 / away 1.048. Data: 23 Annecy games / 60 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 32% | Draw 31% | Amiens 36%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Amiens 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Amiens are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Annecy (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Amiens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 20% | Amiens 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 32% | Draw 31% | Amiens 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Annecy 1.03 / Amiens 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.924 / def 0.898 | Amiens attack 1.185 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.181 / away 1.048 • Poisson stance: Amiens (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Amiens xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Amiens kick off?
Annecy vs Amiens kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Amiens?
Annecy 2 - 0 Amiens.
Where is Annecy vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Amiens part of?
Annecy vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 32% chance of winning, Amiens a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Annecy and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Amiens?
Record (1 meetings): Annecy 0W | Draws 0 | Amiens 1W.
What form are Annecy and Amiens in?
Annecy (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Amiens (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Annecy's attack rating (0.92) and Amiens's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Amiens's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
32%
3.09
31%
3.21
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.15
1.11
Amiens xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
11%
9.42
13%
7.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 13.0 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Annecy and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Annecy and 1.11 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Annecy's recent record stands at 7W 8D 8L from 23 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Amiens, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 8L across 23 games — 1.43 PPG, with D-D-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Annecy on 1.26 PPG, Amiens on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Annecy have managed 5W 2D 4L from 11 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Amiens's away record stands at 4W 3D 4L across 11 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Annecy are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.17 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Amiens in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 7W 8D 8L in their last 23 games (1.26 PPG), while Amiens have gone 9W 6D 8L in their last 23 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Amiens away?
Annecy's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.55 PPG; Amiens away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Annecy or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Amiens in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Annecy have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Sep 2024, when Annecy won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Annecy's record when hosting Amiens specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Annecy
1
Draws
3
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Amiens?
From 8 meetings on record, Annecy have won 4, Amiens have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when Annecy 2-0 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Amiens?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 27%, Amiens 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Annecy) and 46% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Annecy have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Annecy's recent matches and 54% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Annecy's recent games and 46% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Amiens tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Amiens in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Annecy cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Amiens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Amiens 2-0 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.03 xG and Amiens 1.11 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Annecy beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Amiens landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.92 / defence 0.90 against Amiens attack 1.19 / defence 0.95, drawn from 23/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 32% | Draw 31% | Amiens 36%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Annecy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 35%, Amiens 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Amiens's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.26 PPG, Amiens 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.