Toulouse 1-2 Montpellier – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Toulouse at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Toulouse vs Montpellier encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadium de Toulouse plays host to Toulouse versus Montpellier in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 26 January 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Toulouse have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Toulouse's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stadium de Toulouse this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadium de Toulouse this season.
Montpellier's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Montpellier, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Montpellier away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Toulouse's 1.90 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Montpellier's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Toulouse 3W, Montpellier 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2024, ended 3–0 with Toulouse winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Toulouse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Montpellier goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 54% versus Montpellier 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 54% | Montpellier 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.59 xG and Montpellier 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.873 / defence 0.941 | Montpellier attack 0.645 / defence 1.215. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.288. Montpellier bring a strong defensive rating of 1.215 — this is suppressing Toulouse's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Toulouse games / 52 Montpellier games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 54% | Draw 30% | Montpellier 16%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 1.85 | Draw 3.33 | Montpellier 6.25. Toulouse hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Toulouse as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Toulouse if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Toulouse 50% | Montpellier 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Montpellier | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jan 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 54% | Draw 30% | Montpellier 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Toulouse 1.59 / Montpellier 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.873 / def 0.941 | Montpellier attack 0.645 / def 1.215 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Montpellier xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Montpellier kick off?
Toulouse vs Montpellier kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 26 January 2025 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Montpellier?
Toulouse 1 - 2 Montpellier.
Where is Toulouse vs Montpellier being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Montpellier part of?
Toulouse vs Montpellier is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Montpellier?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 54% chance of winning, Montpellier a 16% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Montpellier?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Toulouse and Montpellier will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Montpellier have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Montpellier?
Record (5 meetings): Toulouse 3W | Draws 0 | Montpellier 2W.
What form are Toulouse and Montpellier in?
Toulouse (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Montpellier (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Toulouse's attack at 0.87x the league average against Montpellier's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Montpellier's attack (0.65x) against Toulouse's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 2-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
54%
1.85
30%
3.31
16%
6.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.37
0.78
Montpellier xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
6.32
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
25%
4.05
3%
30.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 11.6 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Montpellier?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Montpellier expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Toulouse and 0.78 for Montpellier, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Montpellier?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Toulouse's recent record stands at 18W 14D 20L from 52 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Montpellier, meanwhile, have gone 13W 15D 24L across 52 games — 1.04 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Montpellier is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Toulouse against 1.04 for Montpellier. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Toulouse have managed 7W 8D 10L from 25 games — 1.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Montpellier's away record stands at 7W 3D 15L across 25 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Toulouse are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Montpellier are on 1.17 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Blended
Montpellier
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Montpellier in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 18W 14D 20L in their last 52 games (1.31 PPG), while Montpellier have gone 13W 15D 24L in their last 52 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Montpellier away?
Toulouse's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.16 PPG; Montpellier away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Montpellier won 3-0 on 29 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Toulouse have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Montpellier — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Toulouse
0
Draws
3
Montpellier
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Montpellier?
From 6 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 3, Montpellier have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Montpellier last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when Toulouse 1-2 Montpellier.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 64%, Montpellier 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Toulouse) and 56% (Montpellier). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Montpellier in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Montpellier away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Montpellier?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Toulouse's recent matches and 44% of Montpellier's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Toulouse vs Montpellier usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Toulouse's matches and 56% of Montpellier's.
Do Toulouse and Montpellier tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Montpellier in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Montpellier defy the odds to beat Toulouse 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Montpellier beat Toulouse 1-2 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.59 xG and Montpellier 0.78 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Montpellier outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.87 / defence 0.94 against Montpellier attack 0.65 / defence 1.22, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 54% | Draw 30% | Montpellier 16%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Montpellier win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 54%, Montpellier 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Montpellier's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Toulouse 1.31 PPG, Montpellier 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Montpellier win broke the near-deadlock. Montpellier (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.