Auxerre 1-1 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Saint Etienne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 19 as Auxerre welcome Saint Etienne to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. Kick-off is set for Friday 24 January 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Auxerre have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Auxerre are significantly better at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps than their overall form suggests.
Saint Etienne — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Saint Etienne's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Auxerre at 1.30 PPG versus Saint Etienne's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Auxerre, 2 for Saint Etienne and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 1–3 with Saint Etienne winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Auxerre in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Saint Etienne in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 54% versus Saint Etienne 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 55% | Saint Etienne 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 2.15 xG and Saint Etienne 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.919 / defence 0.795 | Saint Etienne attack 0.725 / defence 1.550. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.283. Saint Etienne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.550 — this is suppressing Auxerre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Auxerre's defence rating of 0.795 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 18 Auxerre games / 18 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 68% | Draw 22% | Saint Etienne 10%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 1.47 | Draw 4.55 | Saint Etienne 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Auxerre (68%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Auxerre are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 40% | Saint Etienne 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Friday 24 Jan 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 68% | Draw 22% | Saint Etienne 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 48% | xG Auxerre 2.15 / Saint Etienne 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.919 / def 0.795 | Saint Etienne attack 0.725 / def 1.550 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Saint Etienne xG
48%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Auxerre vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 24 January 2025 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Saint Etienne?
Auxerre 1 - 1 Saint Etienne.
Where is Auxerre vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Saint Etienne part of?
Auxerre vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 68% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 10% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Auxerre and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Saint Etienne?
Record (5 meetings): Auxerre 1W | Draws 2 | Saint Etienne 2W.
What form are Auxerre and Saint Etienne in?
Auxerre (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Saint Etienne (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Auxerre's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Saint Etienne's defensive record (1.55x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.15. The same calculation in reverse, Saint Etienne's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 1-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
68%
1.47
22%
4.47
10%
10.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.89
0.74
Saint Etienne xG
1.47
68%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
10.41
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
12%
8.62
Win to Nil
32%
3.08
1%
89.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Auxerre and 0.74 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Saint Etienne?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Auxerre have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 27W 15D 14L record — D-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Saint Etienne's form line: 25W 11D 20L from 56 games, 1.54 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Auxerre on 1.71 PPG, Saint Etienne on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Auxerre have posted 2.11 PPG from 28 outings (17W 8D 3L).
On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 9W 6D 13L from 28 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Auxerre are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.21 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Saint Etienne in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 27W 15D 14L in their last 56 games (1.71 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 25W 11D 20L in their last 56 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Saint Etienne away?
Auxerre's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 2.11 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2023, when Auxerre won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Auxerre's record when hosting Saint Etienne specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Auxerre
3
Draws
2
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Saint Etienne?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 1, Saint Etienne have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2025, when Auxerre 1-1 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Saint Etienne?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 43%, Saint Etienne 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Auxerre) and 50% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Saint Etienne in 36%; Saint Etienne in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Saint Etienne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Auxerre's recent matches and 36% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Auxerre's recent games and 50% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Auxerre and Saint Etienne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre and Saint Etienne finished level at 1-1 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 2.15 xG and Saint Etienne 0.74 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Auxerre fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.92 / defence 0.80 against Saint Etienne attack 0.72 / defence 1.55, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 68% | Draw 22% | Saint Etienne 10%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 55%, Saint Etienne 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.71 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.