Nantes 1-1 Lyon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lyon (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Nantes face Lyon.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nantes host Lyon at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 January 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nantes stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Nantes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nantes at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lyon — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lyon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lyon's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lyon — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Lyon have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 7 encounters against Nantes's 0 victories.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2024, ended 0–2 with Lyon winning.
It is worth noting that Lyon have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Nantes trading profile (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Lyon trading profile (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantes 54% versus Lyon 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantes 46% | Lyon 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 1.20 xG and Lyon 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 0.855 / defence 1.069 | Lyon attack 1.099 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.288. Data: 52 Nantes games / 52 Lyon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantes 27% | Draw 31% | Lyon 42%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 3.70 | Draw 3.23 | Lyon 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lyon as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lyon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Nantes 60% | Lyon 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jan 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 27% | Draw 31% | Lyon 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Nantes 1.20 / Lyon 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 0.855 / def 1.069 | Lyon attack 1.099 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Lyon (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Lyon xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantes vs Lyon kick off?
Nantes vs Lyon kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 26 January 2025 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What was the final score in Nantes vs Lyon?
Nantes 1 - 1 Lyon.
Where is Nantes vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What competition is Nantes vs Lyon part of?
Nantes vs Lyon is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 27% chance of winning, Lyon a 42% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Nantes and Lyon will score (BTTS).
Will Nantes vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Lyon?
Record (7 meetings): Nantes 0W | Draws 2 | Lyon 5W.
What form are Nantes and Lyon in?
Nantes (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. Lyon (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nantes's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Lyon's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Lyon's attack versus Nantes's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
27%
3.65
31%
3.26
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Nantes xG
Total xG
2.71
1.51
Lyon xG
3.65
27%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
6%
16.56
13%
7.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 10.1 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Nantes and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Nantes and 1.51 for Lyon, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Lyon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nantes come into this having played 52 games, going 12W 14D 26L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-D. The sample for Nantes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lyon sit at 1.58 PPG from 52 outings (24W 10D 18L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Lyon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lyon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Nantes — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Nantes's home form reads 5W 6D 14L across 25 games on their own ground, a 0.84 PPG return.
Away from home, Lyon have taken 1.60 points per game from 25 outings (12W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lyon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nantes are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.50 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Blended
Lyon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantes and Lyon in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 12W 14D 26L in their last 52 games (0.96 PPG), while Lyon have gone 24W 10D 18L in their last 52 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantes at home or Lyon away?
Lyon's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantes at home: 0.84 PPG; Lyon away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Nantes or Lyon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nantes have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Lyon in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nantes and Lyon runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lyon go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Nov 2025, when Lyon won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nantes's record when hosting Lyon specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Nantes
3
Draws
7
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Lyon?
From 10 meetings on record, Nantes have won 0, Lyon have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and Lyon last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Nantes 0-1 Lyon.
Who has won more matches between Nantes and Lyon?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantes 52%, Lyon 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Nantes) and 60% (Lyon).
On the defensive side: Lyon in 32%; Nantes have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantes play Lyon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Nantes's recent matches and 52% of Lyon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nantes vs Lyon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Nantes's recent games and 60% of Lyon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantes and Lyon tend to score early?
Nantes have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Lyon in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nantes and Lyon share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nantes and Lyon finished level at 1-1 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.20 xG and Lyon 1.51 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 0.85 / defence 1.07 against Lyon attack 1.10 / defence 0.93, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantes 27% | Draw 31% | Lyon 42%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 46%, Lyon 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantes's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Lyon's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lyon arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.