Le Havre 0-1 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Stade Brestois 29 (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Le Havre face Stade Brestois 29.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Le Havre host Stade Brestois 29 at Stade Océane in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 January 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Le Havre — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Océane, Le Havre have gone 2W 0D 8L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stade Brestois 29 stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Stade Brestois 29 — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Stade Brestois 29 have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Le Havre.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2024, ended 0–2 with Stade Brestois 29 winning.
It is worth noting that Stade Brestois 29 have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Le Havre in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Stade Brestois 29 in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 44% versus Stade Brestois 29 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 52% | Stade Brestois 29 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.23 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.658 / defence 1.368 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.924 / defence 1.242. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.294. Le Havre's attack strength of 0.658 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Stade Brestois 29 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.242 — this is suppressing Le Havre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Le Havre games / 52 Stade Brestois 29 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 26% | Draw 30% | Stade Brestois 29 44%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Stade Brestois 29 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.23 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stade Brestois 29 as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stade Brestois 29 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Le Havre 40% | Stade Brestois 29 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jan 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 26% | Draw 30% | Stade Brestois 29 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Le Havre 1.23 / Stade Brestois 29 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.658 / def 1.368 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.924 / def 1.242 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Stade Brestois 29 (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Stade Brestois 29 xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 26 January 2025 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Le Havre 0 - 1 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 26% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Stade Brestois 29 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Le Havre and Stade Brestois 29 will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Stade Brestois 29?
Record (3 meetings): Le Havre 0W | Draws 0 | Stade Brestois 29 3W.
What form are Le Havre and Stade Brestois 29 in?
Le Havre (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Le Havre's attack at 0.66x the league average against Stade Brestois 29's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stade Brestois 29's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Brestois 29 Win
26%
3.85
30%
3.33
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.87
1.64
Stade Brestois 29 xG
3.85
26%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
19%
5.13
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
5%
19.73
13%
7.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.3 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.64 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Le Havre come into this having played 52 games, going 11W 12D 29L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stade Brestois 29 sit at 1.65 PPG from 52 outings (25W 11D 16L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Stade Brestois 29 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stade Brestois 29 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of Le Havre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Le Havre's home form reads 8W 2D 16L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Stade Brestois 29 have taken 1.38 points per game from 26 outings (11W 3D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Le Havre are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.56 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 11W 12D 29L in their last 52 games (0.87 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 25W 11D 16L in their last 52 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Stade Brestois 29 away?
Stade Brestois 29's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.00 PPG; Stade Brestois 29 away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Stade Brestois 29 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Stade Brestois 29 in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Stade Brestois 29 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Le Havre's record when hosting Stade Brestois 29 specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Le Havre
0
Draws
6
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Stade Brestois 29?
From 7 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 1, Stade Brestois 29 have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Le Havre 1-2 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Stade Brestois 29?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 38%, Stade Brestois 29 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Le Havre) and 58% (Stade Brestois 29). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Le Havre have failed to score in 50% of games; Stade Brestois 29 in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Stade Brestois 29?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Le Havre's recent matches and 50% of Stade Brestois 29's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Le Havre's matches and 58% of Stade Brestois 29's.
Do Le Havre and Stade Brestois 29 tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Stade Brestois 29 in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stade Brestois 29 edge out Le Havre 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stade Brestois 29 beat Le Havre 0-1 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.23 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.64 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Le Havre fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.66 / defence 1.37 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.92 / defence 1.24, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 26% | Draw 30% | Stade Brestois 29 44%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 52%, Stade Brestois 29 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Stade Brestois 29 arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.87. That form edge translated into the three points. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.