Toulouse 0-1 Marseille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Toulouse at 46%, yet the head-to-head data favours Marseille — this Toulouse vs Marseille fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Toulouse welcome Marseille to Stadium de Toulouse in Ligue 1 (matchday 25). Kick-off is Saturday 7 March 2026 at 20:05 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Toulouse have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Toulouse's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Marseille stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Marseille's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Toulouse at 1.40 PPG versus Marseille's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Marseille have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches against 0 for Toulouse.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.1 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 29 Nov 2025, ended Toulouse 2–2 Marseille — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. Marseille have won 4 of 7 H2H matches, and at 4.1 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Toulouse trading profile (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Marseille trading profile (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 50% versus Marseille 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 48% | Marseille 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.76 xG and Marseille 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.978 / defence 1.003 | Marseille attack 1.184 / defence 1.228. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.185. Marseille's defence rating of 1.228 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Toulouse's projected output up. Data: built from Toulouse's last 58 games and Marseille's last 58.
Result probabilities: Toulouse 46% | Draw 23% | Marseille 31%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 2.18 | Draw 4.31 | Marseille 3.24. Toulouse hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.76 / 1.41) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Toulouse at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Toulouse's last 10 home games and Marseille's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.1 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Toulouse 40% (last 10 home games) | Marseille 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Marseille | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 25 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 20:05 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 46% | Draw 23% | Marseille 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Toulouse 1.76 / Marseille 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.978 / def 1.003 | Marseille attack 1.184 / def 1.228 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Marseille xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Toulouse vs Marseille FAQs
What time does Toulouse vs Marseille kick off?
Toulouse vs Marseille kicked off at 20:05 UK time on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Marseille?
Toulouse 0 - 1 Marseille.
Where is Toulouse vs Marseille being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Marseille part of?
Toulouse vs Marseille is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 25) (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Marseille?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 46% chance of winning, Marseille a 31% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Marseille?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Toulouse and Marseille will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Toulouse vs Marseille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Toulouse's attack at 0.98x the league average against Marseille's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Marseille's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Toulouse's last 58 games and Marseille's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
46%
2.18
23%
4.31
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Toulouse xG
Total xG
3.17
1.41
Marseille xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
24%
4.08
17%
5.80
Win to Nil
11%
8.90
5%
18.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.4 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Toulouse vs Marseille Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Marseille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Marseille expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.41 for Marseille, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Marseille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Toulouse's recent record stands at 19W 16D 23L from 58 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-L in the last five.
Marseille, meanwhile, have gone 33W 9D 16L across 58 games — 1.86 PPG, with D-L-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Marseille by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Toulouse heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Toulouse have managed 9W 10D 10L from their last 29 home games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Marseille's away record stands at 15W 2D 12L across their last 29 away games, a 1.62 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Toulouse are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Marseille are on 2.16 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Marseille in 60%.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Blended
Marseille
Blended
Toulouse (Home) vs Marseille (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Toulouse
Blended
Marseille
Blended
❓ Toulouse vs Marseille Form FAQs
What form are Toulouse and Marseille in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 19W 16D 23L in their last 58 games (1.26 PPG), while Marseille have gone 33W 9D 16L in their last 58 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Marseille away?
Marseille's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.28 PPG; Marseille away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Marseille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Marseille in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2022. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Marseille have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Dec 2022, when Marseille won Marseille 6-1 Toulouse.
Toulouse's record when hosting Marseille specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Toulouse
3
Draws
6
Marseille
Recent Meetings
❓ Toulouse vs Marseille H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Marseille?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Toulouse have won 0, Marseille have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Marseille last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Marseille 2-0 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Marseille?
Marseille have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Toulouse see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Marseille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 59%, Marseille 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Toulouse) and 66% (Marseille). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Marseille in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Marseille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Toulouse vs Marseille Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Toulouse and Marseille matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Toulouse's games and 52% of Marseille's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Toulouse and Marseille matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Toulouse's matches and 66% of Marseille's.
Do Toulouse and Marseille matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Toulouse's recent matches and 69% of Marseille's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Marseille defy the odds to beat Toulouse 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Marseille beat Toulouse 0-1 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.76 xG and Marseille 1.41 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Toulouse fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.98 / defence 1.00 against Marseille attack 1.18 / defence 1.23, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 46% | Draw 23% | Marseille 31%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Marseille win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 48%, Marseille 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Marseille's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Marseille arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Marseille (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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