🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Marseille at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Marseille vs Auxerre encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Marseille host Auxerre at Orange Vélodrome in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Marseille have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Marseille, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Marseille at Orange Vélodrome this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Auxerre — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Auxerre have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

On current form, Marseille have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Marseille have won 3, Auxerre 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Marseille winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Marseille trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.

Auxerre trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Marseille 59% versus Auxerre 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Marseille 66% | Auxerre 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Marseille 2.08 xG and Auxerre 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Marseille attack 1.418 / defence 1.082 | Auxerre attack 0.899 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.190. Marseille carry an above-average attack strength of 1.418 — their λ of 2.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 59 Marseille games / 59 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Marseille 59% | Draw 21% | Auxerre 21%. Fair-value odds: Marseille 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | Auxerre 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Marseille (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Marseille as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Marseille 60% | Auxerre 40%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights