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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Toulouse defy the odds to beat Lyon 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Toulouse beat Lyon 2-1 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.10 xG and Lyon 1.47 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Toulouse beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.85 / defence 1.12 against Lyon attack 1.02 / defence 0.86, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Toulouse 27% | Draw 29% | Lyon 44%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Toulouse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 52%, Lyon 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Toulouse's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Lyon's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Lyon arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with Toulouse winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights