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Poisson rates Lyon at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Toulouse vs Lyon encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Toulouse and Lyon meet at Stadium de Toulouse in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 20:00 UTC.

Current Form

Toulouse's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Lyon have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Lyon have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Toulouse against 1.50 for Lyon. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

Across the last 7 meetings, Lyon have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Toulouse's 1, with 2 draws in the mix.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 2–1 with Toulouse winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Lyon have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading

Toulouse half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Lyon half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 52% versus Lyon 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 52% | Lyon 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.10 xG and Lyon 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.846 / defence 1.120 | Lyon attack 1.017 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.292. Data: 66 Toulouse games / 66 Lyon games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Toulouse 27% | Draw 29% | Lyon 44%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | Lyon 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Lyon are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lyon if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Toulouse 30% | Lyon 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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