Toulouse 2-1 Lyon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lyon at 44% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Toulouse vs Lyon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Toulouse and Lyon meet at Stadium de Toulouse in Ligue 1 (matchday 33). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 21:00 UK time.
Current Form
Toulouse's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Toulouse have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Lyon have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Lyon have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Toulouse against 1.50 for Lyon. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head sample leans to Lyon, who have 4 wins from 7 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2025, ended Toulouse 2–1 Lyon — a Toulouse win.
Lyon have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading
Toulouse half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Lyon half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 52% versus Lyon 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 52% | Lyon 59%). Note also that Lyon surrender HT leads in 32% of cases while Toulouse recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.10 xG and Lyon 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.846 / defence 1.120 | Lyon attack 1.017 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.292. Data: built from Toulouse's last 66 games and Lyon's last 66.
Result probabilities: Toulouse 27% | Draw 29% | Lyon 44%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 3.73 | Draw 3.42 | Lyon 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lyon are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Lyon 4 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lyon if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Toulouse 30% (last 10 home games) | Lyon 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 33 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 27% | Draw 29% | Lyon 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Toulouse 1.10 / Lyon 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.846 / def 1.120 | Lyon attack 1.017 / def 0.859 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Lyon (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Lyon xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Toulouse vs Lyon FAQs
What time does Toulouse vs Lyon kick off?
Toulouse vs Lyon kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Lyon?
Toulouse 2 - 1 Lyon.
Where is Toulouse vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Lyon part of?
Toulouse vs Lyon is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 33) (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 27% chance of winning, Lyon a 44% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Toulouse and Lyon will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Toulouse vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Toulouse's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Lyon's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — Lyon's attack (1.02x) against Toulouse's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from Toulouse's last 66 games and Lyon's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.6%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
27%
3.73
29%
3.42
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.57
1.47
Lyon xG
3.73
27%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
6%
16.26
15%
6.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.2 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Toulouse vs Lyon Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.47 for Lyon, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Lyon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 66 outings, Toulouse have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 22W 17D 27L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Lyon's form line: 35W 12D 19L from 66 games, 1.77 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Lyon are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Toulouse.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Toulouse have posted 1.24 PPG from their last 33 home games (10W 11D 12L).
On the road, Lyon have gone 12W 9D 12L from their last 33 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.77 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lyon's recent record.
Attack vs Defence
Toulouse are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.77 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Lyon in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Current Season
Lyon
Current Season
Toulouse (Home) vs Lyon (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Toulouse
Current Season
Lyon
Current Season
❓ Toulouse vs Lyon Form FAQs
What form are Toulouse and Lyon in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 22W 17D 27L in their last 66 games (1.26 PPG), while Lyon have gone 35W 12D 19L in their last 66 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Lyon away?
Lyon's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.24 PPG; Lyon away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Lyon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Lyon in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Toulouse and Lyon, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lyon won Lyon 3-0 Toulouse on 10 Dec 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Toulouse have gone 1W 0D 4L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lyon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Toulouse
2
Draws
5
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Toulouse vs Lyon H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Lyon?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Toulouse have won 2, Lyon have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Lyon last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Toulouse 0-2 Lyon.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Lyon?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 54%, Lyon 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Toulouse) and 58% (Lyon).
On the defensive side: Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Lyon in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Toulouse vs Lyon Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Toulouse and Lyon matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Toulouse's games and 58% of Lyon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Toulouse and Lyon matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Toulouse's recent games and 58% of Lyon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Toulouse and Lyon matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Toulouse's recent matches and 70% of Lyon's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Toulouse defy the odds to beat Lyon 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Lyon 2-1 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.10 xG and Lyon 1.47 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Toulouse beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.85 / defence 1.12 against Lyon attack 1.02 / defence 0.86, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 27% | Draw 29% | Lyon 44%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Toulouse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 52%, Lyon 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Lyon's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lyon arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with Toulouse winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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