Strasbourg 1-2 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Strasbourg at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Strasbourg vs Toulouse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Toulouse travel to Stade de la Meinau to take on Strasbourg in Ligue 1 (matchday 32). The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 May 2026 at 17:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Strasbourg — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Strasbourg have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Toulouse have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Toulouse away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Strasbourg are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Strasbourg's games and 60% of Toulouse's (from Strasbourg's last 10 home games and Toulouse's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Strasbourg, 2 for Toulouse and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Dec 2025, ended Strasbourg 0–1 Toulouse — a Toulouse win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Strasbourg in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Toulouse in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Strasbourg 62% versus Toulouse 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Strasbourg 61% | Toulouse 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Strasbourg surrender their half-time lead 35% of the time, while Toulouse have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Toulouse surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Strasbourg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Strasbourg 1.59 xG and Toulouse 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Strasbourg attack 0.974 / defence 0.932 | Toulouse attack 1.085 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.299. Data: built from Strasbourg's last 64 games and Toulouse's last 65.
Result probabilities: Strasbourg 42% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 30%. Fair-value odds: Strasbourg 2.38 | Draw 3.56 | Toulouse 3.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.59 / 1.31) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Strasbourg as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Strasbourg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Strasbourg's last 10 home games and Toulouse's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Strasbourg 60% (last 10 home games) | Toulouse 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Strasbourg vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 32 | Venue: Stade de la Meinau • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026 at 17:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Strasbourg 42% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Strasbourg 1.59 / Toulouse 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Strasbourg attack 0.974 / def 0.932 | Toulouse attack 1.085 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Strasbourg (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Strasbourg xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Toulouse xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Strasbourg vs Toulouse FAQs
What time does Strasbourg vs Toulouse kick off?
Strasbourg vs Toulouse kicked off at 17:15 UK time on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Stade de la Meinau.
What was the final score in Strasbourg vs Toulouse?
Strasbourg 1 - 2 Toulouse.
Where is Strasbourg vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Meinau.
What competition is Strasbourg vs Toulouse part of?
Strasbourg vs Toulouse is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 32) (France).
Who is favourite to win Strasbourg vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Strasbourg a 42% chance of winning, Toulouse a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Strasbourg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Strasbourg vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Strasbourg and Toulouse will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Strasbourg vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Strasbourg's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Toulouse's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Strasbourg's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Strasbourg's last 64 games and Toulouse's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Strasbourg Win
42%
2.38
28%
3.56
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Strasbourg xG
Total xG
2.90
1.31
Toulouse xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
11%
8.83
6%
16.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.5 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Strasbourg vs Toulouse Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Strasbourg vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Strasbourg and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Strasbourg and 1.31 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Strasbourg vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Strasbourg come into this having played 64 games, going 29W 16D 19L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Toulouse sit at 1.23 PPG from 64 outings (21W 16D 27L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Strasbourg on 1.61 PPG, Toulouse on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Strasbourg's home form reads 18W 8D 6L across their last 32 home games, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Toulouse have taken 1.22 points per game from their last 32 away games (11W 6D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Strasbourg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Strasbourg are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.36 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Strasbourg have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Strasbourg
Current Season
Toulouse
Current Season
Strasbourg (Home) vs Toulouse (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Strasbourg
Current Season
Toulouse
Current Season
❓ Strasbourg vs Toulouse Form FAQs
What form are Strasbourg and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Strasbourg have gone 29W 16D 19L in their last 64 games (1.61 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 21W 16D 27L in their last 64 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Strasbourg at home or Toulouse away?
Strasbourg's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Strasbourg at home: 1.94 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 6 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Toulouse have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Strasbourg's record when hosting Toulouse specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Strasbourg
2
Draws
4
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Strasbourg vs Toulouse H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Strasbourg and Toulouse?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Strasbourg have won 3, Toulouse have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Strasbourg and Toulouse last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 November 2026: Toulouse 3-1 Strasbourg.
Who has won more matches between Strasbourg and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Strasbourg 62%, Toulouse 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Strasbourg) and 53% (Toulouse). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Strasbourg keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Toulouse in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Strasbourg home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Strasbourg vs Toulouse Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Strasbourg and Toulouse matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Strasbourg's recent matches and 47% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Strasbourg and Toulouse matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Strasbourg's matches and 53% of Toulouse's.
Do Strasbourg and Toulouse matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Strasbourg's recent matches and 69% of Toulouse's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Toulouse defy the odds to beat Strasbourg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Strasbourg 1-2 at Stade de la Meinau, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Strasbourg 1.59 xG and Toulouse 1.31 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Strasbourg attack 0.97 / defence 0.93 against Toulouse attack 1.08 / defence 1.10, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Strasbourg 42% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 30%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Toulouse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Strasbourg 61%, Toulouse 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Strasbourg's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Toulouse's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Strasbourg 1.61 PPG, Toulouse 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Toulouse win broke the near-deadlock. Strasbourg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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