Saint Etienne 0-5 Rennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rennes at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs Rennes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Rennes travel to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard to take on Saint Etienne. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 December 2021, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Saint Etienne stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Saint Etienne's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 3L across 8 games at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard this term (0.88 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Rennes have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Rennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Rennes have posted 2W 3D 2L from 7 away outings — 1.29 PPG. Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.29 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Rennes are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Saint Etienne trading profile (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Rennes trading profile (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 75% versus Rennes 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 56% | Rennes 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.14 xG and Rennes 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.902 / defence 1.494 | Rennes attack 0.932 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.189 / away 1.236. Data: 16 Saint Etienne games / 16 Rennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 24% | Draw 27% | Rennes 50%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 4.17 | Draw 3.70 | Rennes 2.00. Rennes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rennes as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rennes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Saint Etienne 88% | Rennes 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Rennes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 24% | Draw 27% | Rennes 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Saint Etienne 1.14 / Rennes 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.902 / def 1.494 | Rennes attack 0.932 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.189 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Rennes (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Rennes xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Rennes kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Rennes kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Rennes?
Saint Etienne 0 - 5 Rennes.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Rennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Rennes part of?
Saint Etienne vs Rennes is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Rennes?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 24% chance of winning, Rennes a 50% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Rennes?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Saint Etienne and Rennes will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Rennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Rennes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Saint Etienne and Rennes in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Rennes (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Saint Etienne's attack at 0.90x the league average against Rennes's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rennes's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
24%
4.19
27%
3.76
50%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.86
1.72
Rennes xG
4.19
24%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.02
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
18%
5.59
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
4%
23.43
16%
6.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.8 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Rennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Rennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.72 for Rennes, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Rennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Saint Etienne come into this having played 16 games, going 2W 6D 8L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rennes sit at 1.75 PPG from 16 outings (8W 4D 4L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Rennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rennes carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Saint Etienne — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Saint Etienne's home form reads 1W 3D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Rennes have taken 1.29 points per game from 7 outings (2W 3D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rennes's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rennes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Rennes are on 1.69 scored and 0.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: Rennes in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Rennes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Rennes in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 2W 6D 8L in their last 16 games (0.75 PPG), while Rennes have gone 8W 4D 4L in their last 16 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Rennes away?
Rennes's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 0.86 PPG; Rennes away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Rennes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, Rennes in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Rennes have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2021, when Rennes won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Saint Etienne's record when hosting Rennes specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Saint Etienne
0
Draws
4
Rennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Rennes?
From 4 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 0, Rennes have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Rennes last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Saint Etienne 0-2 Rennes.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Rennes?
Rennes have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Rennes tend to start slowly — only 29% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 86%, Rennes 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Saint Etienne) and 29% (Rennes).
On the defensive side: Rennes in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Rennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Rennes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Saint Etienne's games and 43% of Rennes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Saint Etienne vs Rennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 29% of Rennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Rennes tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Rennes in 29% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rennes run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Saint Etienne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rennes beat Saint Etienne 0-5 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.14 xG and Rennes 1.72 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Saint Etienne fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Rennes outscored their 1.72 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.90 / defence 1.49 against Rennes attack 0.93 / defence 1.06, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 24% | Draw 27% | Rennes 50%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 56%, Rennes 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Rennes's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Rennes arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.75. That form edge translated into the three points. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rennes (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.