Rennes 1-2 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rennes at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rennes vs Lille encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Lille travel to Roazhon Park to take on Rennes. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 1 December 2021, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rennes stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Rennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rennes at Roazhon Park this season: 6W 1D 1L from 8 home games — 2.38 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.12 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 8 home games (62%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Roazhon Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Lille — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lille's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 4L across 8 road games this term (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.75 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Rennes have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Rennes in-play tendencies (15 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Lille in-play tendencies (15 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 47% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 33% versus Lille 73%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rennes 27% | Lille 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 1.83 xG and Lille 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 1.256 / defence 0.789 | Lille attack 0.841 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.224 / away 1.215. Rennes carry an above-average attack strength of 1.256 — their λ of 1.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Rennes's defence rating of 0.789 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 15 Rennes games / 15 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rennes 61% | Draw 25% | Lille 15%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 1.64 | Draw 4.00 | Lille 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Rennes (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rennes as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Rennes 25% | Lille 75%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Dec 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 61% | Draw 25% | Lille 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 48% | xG Rennes 1.83 / Lille 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 1.256 / def 0.789 | Lille attack 0.841 / def 1.192 | league avg home 1.224 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Rennes (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Lille xG
48%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rennes vs Lille kick off?
Rennes vs Lille kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 1 December 2021 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Lille?
Rennes 1 - 2 Lille.
Where is Rennes vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Lille part of?
Rennes vs Lille is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 61% chance of winning, Lille a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Rennes and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Rennes vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Lille?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rennes and Lille in?
Rennes (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Lille (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Rennes's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Lille's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. The same calculation in reverse, Lille's attack versus Rennes's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
61%
1.65
25%
4.05
15%
6.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Rennes xG
Total xG
2.64
0.81
Lille xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
6.77
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
16%
6.25
Win to Nil
27%
3.70
2%
42.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 10.6 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Rennes and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Rennes and 0.81 for Lille, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Lille?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rennes's recent record stands at 8W 4D 3L from 15 games, a 1.87 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Rennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lille, meanwhile, have gone 4W 6D 5L across 15 games — 1.20 PPG, with D-L-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rennes by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lille heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rennes have managed 6W 1D 1L from 8 games — 2.38 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.87 PPG overall — Rennes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lille's away record stands at 1W 3D 4L across 8 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lille's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rennes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rennes are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.27 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lille in 73%.
Defensively: Rennes have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Blended
Lille
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rennes and Lille in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 8W 4D 3L in their last 15 games (1.87 PPG), while Lille have gone 4W 6D 5L in their last 15 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rennes at home or Lille away?
Rennes's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rennes at home: 2.38 PPG; Lille away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Rennes or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rennes have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Lille in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rennes and Lille runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Rennes's record when hosting Lille specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Rennes
4
Draws
5
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Lille?
From 10 meetings on record, Rennes have won 1, Lille have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Rennes and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Rennes 1-2 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Rennes and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rennes 25%, Lille 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Rennes) and 62% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Rennes keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rennes play Lille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Rennes's recent matches and 75% of Lille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rennes vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Rennes's recent games and 62% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rennes and Lille tend to score early?
Rennes have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Lille in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lille defy the odds to beat Rennes 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Rennes 1-2 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 1.83 xG and Lille 0.81 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Rennes fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Lille outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 1.26 / defence 0.79 against Lille attack 0.84 / defence 1.19, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rennes 61% | Draw 25% | Lille 15%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Lille win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 27%, Lille 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rennes's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Lille's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rennes arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Lille winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rennes (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.