Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Paris Saint Germain vs Saint Etienne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Paris Saint Germain and Saint Etienne meet at Parc des Princes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 February 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Paris Saint Germain's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Parc des Princes, Paris Saint Germain have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parc des Princes. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Paris Saint Germain are significantly better at Parc des Princes than their overall form suggests.
Saint Etienne have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Saint Etienne away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Paris Saint Germain's favour (1.90 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Paris Saint Germain, 0 for Saint Etienne and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 3–1 with Paris Saint Germain winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Paris Saint Germain — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Saint Etienne — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Paris Saint Germain 60% and Saint Etienne 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris Saint Germain 56% | Saint Etienne 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris Saint Germain 1.82 xG and Saint Etienne 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.323 / defence 0.732 | Saint Etienne attack 0.724 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.163. Paris Saint Germain carry an above-average attack strength of 1.323 — their λ of 1.82 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Paris Saint Germain's defence rating of 0.732 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 25 Paris Saint Germain games / 25 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 66% | Draw 22% | Saint Etienne 12%. Fair-value odds: Paris Saint Germain 1.52 | Draw 4.55 | Saint Etienne 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Paris Saint Germain (66%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Paris Saint Germain 40% | Saint Etienne 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris Saint Germain vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Parc des Princes • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 66% | Draw 22% | Saint Etienne 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 39% | xG Paris Saint Germain 1.82 / Saint Etienne 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.323 / def 0.732 | Saint Etienne attack 0.724 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Paris Saint Germain xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Saint Etienne xG
39%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris Saint Germain vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Paris Saint Germain vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Parc des Princes.
What was the final score in Paris Saint Germain vs Saint Etienne?
Paris Saint Germain 3 - 1 Saint Etienne.
Where is Paris Saint Germain vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Princes.
What competition is Paris Saint Germain vs Saint Etienne part of?
Paris Saint Germain vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris Saint Germain vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Paris Saint Germain a 66% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 12% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Paris Saint Germain and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Paris Saint Germain vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Saint Etienne?
Record (1 meetings): Paris Saint Germain 1W | Draws 0 | Saint Etienne 0W.
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Saint Etienne in?
Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Saint Etienne (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Paris Saint Germain's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against Saint Etienne's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. Flip it around — Saint Etienne's attack (0.72x) against Paris Saint Germain's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.62.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.5%), 1-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
66%
1.51
22%
4.52
12%
8.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.5%
Home win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Paris Saint Germain xG
Total xG
2.43
0.62
Saint Etienne xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
8.49
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
54%
1.85
16%
6.15
Win to Nil
36%
2.80
2%
52.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 9.8 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.5 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris Saint Germain vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Paris Saint Germain and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 0.62 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris Saint Germain vs Saint Etienne?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Paris Saint Germain come into this having played 25 games, going 18W 5D 2L for 2.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Paris Saint Germain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Saint Etienne sit at 0.88 PPG from 25 outings (5W 7D 13L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.48 PPG clear of Saint Etienne — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Paris Saint Germain's home form reads 11W 1D 0L across 12 games on their own ground, a 2.83 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.36 PPG overall — Paris Saint Germain are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Saint Etienne have taken 0.92 points per game from 12 outings (3W 2D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Paris Saint Germain are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.04 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Paris Saint Germain have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Saint Etienne in 64%.
Defensively: Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Paris Saint Germain have gone 18W 5D 2L in their last 25 games (2.36 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 5W 7D 13L in their last 25 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris Saint Germain at home or Saint Etienne away?
Paris Saint Germain's home record (2.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris Saint Germain at home: 2.83 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Paris Saint Germain or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Paris Saint Germain have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Paris Saint Germain won 1-6 on 29 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Paris Saint Germain have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Saint Etienne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Paris Saint Germain
0
Draws
0
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Saint Etienne?
From 4 meetings on record, Paris Saint Germain have won 4, Saint Etienne have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Paris Saint Germain and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Saint Etienne 1-6 Paris Saint Germain.
Who has won more matches between Paris Saint Germain and Saint Etienne?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris Saint Germain 42%, Saint Etienne 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Paris Saint Germain) and 42% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Paris Saint Germain keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Saint Etienne in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris Saint Germain home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris Saint Germain play Saint Etienne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Paris Saint Germain's recent matches and 50% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Paris Saint Germain vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Paris Saint Germain's recent games and 42% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris Saint Germain and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Paris Saint Germain have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Paris Saint Germain cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Saint Etienne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Saint Etienne 3-1 at Parc des Princes, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris Saint Germain 1.82 xG and Saint Etienne 0.62 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Paris Saint Germain beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris Saint Germain attack 1.32 / defence 0.73 against Saint Etienne attack 0.72 / defence 1.18, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris Saint Germain 66% | Draw 22% | Saint Etienne 12%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris Saint Germain 56%, Saint Etienne 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.