Saint Etienne 3-2 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Saint Etienne at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Geoffroy-Guichard plays host to Saint Etienne versus Clermont Foot in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 7 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Saint Etienne have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 0W 4D 6L. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Saint Etienne's home record at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard: 0W 4D 2L from 6 Ligue 1 appearances (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Clermont Foot's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot's away record: 1W 2D 3L from 6 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (0.83 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.40 for Saint Etienne, 0.70 for Clermont Foot — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Saint Etienne half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Clermont Foot half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Saint Etienne 83% and Clermont Foot 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 58% | Clermont Foot 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.62 xG and Clermont Foot 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.794 / defence 1.389 | Clermont Foot attack 0.853 / defence 1.602. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.169. Saint Etienne's attack strength of 0.794 is below the league average — the 1.62 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Clermont Foot bring a strong defensive rating of 1.602 — this is suppressing Saint Etienne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Saint Etienne games / 12 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 40% | Draw 31% | Clermont Foot 29%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Clermont Foot 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Saint Etienne as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Saint Etienne 83% | Clermont Foot 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 40% | Draw 31% | Clermont Foot 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 63% | xG Saint Etienne 1.62 / Clermont Foot 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.794 / def 1.389 | Clermont Foot attack 0.853 / def 1.602 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Clermont Foot xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot?
Saint Etienne 3 - 2 Clermont Foot.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot part of?
Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 40% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Saint Etienne and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Clermont Foot?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Saint Etienne and Clermont Foot in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Clermont Foot (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Saint Etienne's attack rating (0.79) and Clermont Foot's defence rating (1.60), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Clermont Foot's attack (0.85x) against Saint Etienne's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
40%
2.52
31%
3.25
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
3.00
1.39
Clermont Foot xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
10%
10.05
6%
17.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.1 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.39 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Saint Etienne come into this having played 12 games, going 0W 6D 6L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-D. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Clermont Foot sit at 1.08 PPG from 12 outings (3W 4D 5L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Clermont Foot carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Saint Etienne — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Saint Etienne's home form reads 0W 4D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Clermont Foot have taken 0.83 points per game from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.17 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 0W 6D 6L in their last 12 games (0.50 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 3W 4D 5L in their last 12 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Clermont Foot away?
Clermont Foot's away record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 0.67 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Saint Etienne go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Saint Etienne have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Saint Etienne
0
Draws
0
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Clermont Foot?
From 4 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 4, Clermont Foot have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Saint Etienne 1-0 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Clermont Foot?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for Saint Etienne, 50% for Clermont Foot — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Saint Etienne) and 67% (Clermont Foot). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Clermont Foot?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Saint Etienne's games and 50% of Clermont Foot's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Saint Etienne's matches and 67% of Clermont Foot's.
Do Saint Etienne and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Saint Etienne edge out Clermont Foot 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Clermont Foot 3-2 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.62 xG and Clermont Foot 1.39 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Saint Etienne beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.79 / defence 1.39 against Clermont Foot attack 0.85 / defence 1.60, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 40% | Draw 31% | Clermont Foot 29%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 58%, Clermont Foot 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Clermont Foot arrived the stronger side — 1.08 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with Saint Etienne winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.