Metz 1-1 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Metz at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Metz vs Saint Etienne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 12 as Metz welcome Saint Etienne to Stade Saint-Symphorien. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 October 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Metz — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Metz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Metz at Stade Saint-Symphorien this season: 0W 2D 3L from 5 home games — 0.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Saint Etienne stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Saint Etienne's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 4L across 5 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Metz at 0.50 PPG versus Saint Etienne's 0.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Metz register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Saint Etienne in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Metz trading profile (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Saint Etienne trading profile (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Metz 64% and Saint Etienne 82% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Metz 73% | Saint Etienne 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Metz 1.60 xG and Saint Etienne 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Metz attack 0.763 / defence 1.595 | Saint Etienne attack 0.783 / defence 1.690. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.211. Metz's attack strength of 0.763 is below the league average — the 1.60 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Saint Etienne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.690 — this is suppressing Metz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Metz games / 11 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Metz 37% | Draw 30% | Saint Etienne 33%. Fair-value odds: Metz 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Saint Etienne 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Metz as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Metz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Metz 60% | Saint Etienne 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Metz vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade Saint-Symphorien • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Metz 37% | Draw 30% | Saint Etienne 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 65% | xG Metz 1.60 / Saint Etienne 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Metz attack 0.763 / def 1.595 | Saint Etienne attack 0.783 / def 1.690 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Metz (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Metz xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Saint Etienne xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Metz vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Metz vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What was the final score in Metz vs Saint Etienne?
Metz 1 - 1 Saint Etienne.
Where is Metz vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What competition is Metz vs Saint Etienne part of?
Metz vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Metz vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Metz a 37% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Metz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Metz vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Metz and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Metz vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Saint Etienne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Metz and Saint Etienne in?
Metz (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Saint Etienne (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Metz's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Saint Etienne's defensive record (1.69x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, Saint Etienne's attack versus Metz's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Metz Win
37%
2.73
30%
3.31
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Metz xG
Total xG
3.11
1.51
Saint Etienne xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
20%
4.94
Win to Nil
8%
12.37
7%
14.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.8 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Metz vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Metz and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Metz and 1.51 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Metz vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 11 outings, Metz have picked up 0.55 PPG on a 1W 3D 7L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Metz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Saint Etienne's form line: 0W 5D 6L from 11 games, 0.45 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Metz on 0.55 PPG, Saint Etienne on 0.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Metz have posted 0.40 PPG from 5 outings (0W 2D 3L).
On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 away games — 0.20 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Metz are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 2.36 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.00 scored and 2.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Metz have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Saint Etienne in 82%.
Last 11 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Metz
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Metz and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Metz have gone 1W 3D 7L in their last 11 games (0.55 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 0W 5D 6L in their last 11 (0.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Metz at home or Saint Etienne away?
Metz's home record (0.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Metz at home: 0.40 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 0.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 June 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Metz's record when hosting Saint Etienne specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Metz
2
Draws
2
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Saint Etienne?
From 6 meetings on record, Metz have won 2, Saint Etienne have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Metz and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 2 June 2024, when Metz 2-2 Saint Etienne.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Metz at 60%, Saint Etienne at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Metz and 80% for Saint Etienne. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 80% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Metz have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Metz home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Metz play Saint Etienne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Metz's games and 80% of Saint Etienne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Metz vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Metz's matches and 80% of Saint Etienne's.
Do Metz and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Metz have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Metz and Saint Etienne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Metz and Saint Etienne finished level at 1-1 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 1.60 xG and Saint Etienne 1.51 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 0.76 / defence 1.59 against Saint Etienne attack 0.78 / defence 1.69, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Metz 37% | Draw 30% | Saint Etienne 33%, with Metz to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 73%, Saint Etienne 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Metz's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Metz 0.55 PPG, Saint Etienne 0.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Metz (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.