Reims 0-0 Monaco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 35%, yet in-form Monaco provide a compelling counter-argument — this Reims vs Monaco fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Reims and Monaco meet at Stade Auguste-Delaune II in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Reims's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims at Stade Auguste-Delaune II this season: 1W 2D 2L from 5 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Monaco have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Monaco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Monaco have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.17 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Monaco arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Reims half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Monaco half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 58% versus Monaco 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 42% | Monaco 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.34 xG and Monaco 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.857 / defence 1.320 | Monaco attack 0.824 / defence 1.227. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.169. Monaco bring a strong defensive rating of 1.227 — this is suppressing Reims's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Reims games / 12 Monaco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 35% | Draw 34% | Monaco 32%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.86 | Draw 2.94 | Monaco 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reims at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Monaco (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reims if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Reims 60% | Monaco 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune II • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 35% | Draw 34% | Monaco 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 57% | xG Reims 1.34 / Monaco 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.857 / def 1.320 | Monaco attack 0.824 / def 1.227 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Reims (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Monaco xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Monaco kick off?
Reims vs Monaco kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What was the final score in Reims vs Monaco?
Reims 0 - 0 Monaco.
Where is Reims vs Monaco being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What competition is Reims vs Monaco part of?
Reims vs Monaco is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 35% chance of winning, Monaco a 32% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Reims and Monaco will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Monaco?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Reims and Monaco in?
Reims (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Monaco (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Reims's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Monaco's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Monaco's attack (0.82x) against Reims's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
35%
2.89
34%
2.96
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Reims xG
Total xG
2.61
1.27
Monaco xG
2.89
35%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
10%
10.31
8%
12.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.5 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Reims and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Reims and 1.27 for Monaco, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Monaco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 12 outings, Reims have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 2W 5D 5L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monaco's form line: 5W 2D 5L from 12 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Monaco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Monaco are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Reims.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Reims have posted 1.00 PPG from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L).
On the road, Monaco have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Reims are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 1.42 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Monaco
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Monaco in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 2W 5D 5L in their last 12 games (0.92 PPG), while Monaco have gone 5W 2D 5L in their last 12 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Monaco away?
Monaco's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.00 PPG; Monaco away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Monaco won 0-3 on 18 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reims have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Monaco — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Reims
2
Draws
3
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Monaco?
From 8 meetings on record, Reims have won 3, Monaco have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Monaco last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2025, when Monaco 3-0 Reims.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 60%, Monaco 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Reims and 60% for Monaco. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Reims have failed to score in 40% of games; Monaco in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Monaco?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Reims's games and 60% of Monaco's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reims vs Monaco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Reims's matches and 60% of Monaco's.
Do Reims and Monaco tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Monaco in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Reims's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Auguste-Delaune II, Regular Season - 13, as Reims and Monaco drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.34 xG and Monaco 1.27 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Reims fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Monaco landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.86 / defence 1.32 against Monaco attack 0.82 / defence 1.23, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 35% | Draw 34% | Monaco 32%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 42%, Monaco 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Monaco's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Monaco arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Monaco (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.