Lille 1-1 Angers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lille at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lille vs Angers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Pierre-Mauroy plays host to Lille versus Angers in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 6 November 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lille's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille have gone 3W 1D 1L this season (5 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Lille are significantly better at Stade Pierre-Mauroy than their overall form suggests.
Angers have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Angers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Angers away from home this season: 1W 4D 1L from 6 away games — 1.17 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Lille, 1.10 for Angers — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Lille have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Angers in 83%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Lille — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Angers — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lille 67% and Angers 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 58% | Angers 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.35 xG and Angers 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 0.959 / defence 1.173 | Angers attack 0.903 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.290 / away 1.168. Data: 12 Lille games / 12 Angers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lille 36% | Draw 34% | Angers 30%. Fair-value odds: Lille 2.78 | Draw 2.94 | Angers 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lille are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lille if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lille 60% | Angers 83% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Angers | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 36% | Draw 34% | Angers 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 56% | xG Lille 1.35 / Angers 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 0.959 / def 1.173 | Angers attack 0.903 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.290 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Lille (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Lille xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Angers xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lille vs Angers kick off?
Lille vs Angers kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Angers?
Lille 1 - 1 Angers.
Where is Lille vs Angers being played?
The match is being played at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Angers part of?
Lille vs Angers is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Angers?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 36% chance of winning, Angers a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Angers?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Lille and Angers will score (BTTS).
Will Lille vs Angers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Angers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lille and Angers in?
Lille (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Angers (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lille's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Angers's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — Angers's attack (0.90x) against Lille's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
36%
2.81
34%
2.94
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Lille xG
Total xG
2.58
1.24
Angers xG
2.81
36%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
10%
9.67
8%
12.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Angers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Lille and Angers expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Lille and 1.24 for Angers, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Angers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lille come into this having played 12 games, going 4W 3D 5L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-L. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Angers sit at 1.42 PPG from 12 outings (4W 5D 3L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Angers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Lille against 1.42 for Angers. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Lille's home form reads 3W 1D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Lille are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Angers have taken 0.80 points per game from 5 outings (0W 4D 1L). That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Angers's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lille are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Angers are on 1.50 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lille have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Angers in 67%.
Last 12 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Blended
Angers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lille and Angers in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 4W 3D 5L in their last 12 games (1.25 PPG), while Angers have gone 4W 5D 3L in their last 12 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Angers away?
Lille's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 2.00 PPG; Angers away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Lille or Angers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lille have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Angers in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Lille go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lille have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Angers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Lille
2
Draws
1
Angers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Angers?
From 8 meetings on record, Lille have won 5, Angers have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Angers last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Angers 0-1 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Angers?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Lille, 100% for Angers — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Lille) and 40% (Angers).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Angers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lille play Angers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Lille's games and 100% of Angers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lille vs Angers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Lille's recent games and 40% of Angers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lille and Angers tend to score early?
Lille have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Angers in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lille and Angers share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille and Angers finished level at 1-1 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.35 xG and Angers 1.24 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 0.96 / defence 1.17 against Angers attack 0.90 / defence 1.09, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lille 36% | Draw 34% | Angers 30%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 58%, Angers 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lille's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Angers's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lille 1.25 PPG, Angers 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.