Rennes 2-1 Nantes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Rennes (53%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Rennes face Nantes.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Rennes welcome Nantes to Roazhon Park in Ligue 1 (matchday 31). Kick-off is Sunday 26 April 2026 at 17:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Rennes have gone 7W 1D 2L — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Rennes at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Nantes stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Nantes's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
On current form, Rennes have the edge — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Rennes: 6 wins from 9 H2H matches against 2 for Nantes, with 1 draw.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2025, ended Rennes 2–2 Nantes — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives Rennes an edge — 6 wins from 9 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Profile
Rennes in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Nantes in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 50% versus Nantes 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 62% | Nantes 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 1.43 xG and Nantes 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 0.981 / defence 0.895 | Nantes attack 0.620 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.284. Nantes's attack rating of 0.620 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.71. Data: built from Rennes's last 64 games and Nantes's last 64.
Result probabilities: Rennes 53% | Draw 30% | Nantes 17%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 1.90 | Draw 3.32 | Nantes 5.83. Rennes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rennes as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rennes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 64% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Rennes 70% (last 10 home games) | Nantes 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Nantes | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 31 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Sunday 26 April 2026 at 17:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 53% | Draw 30% | Nantes 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Rennes 1.43 / Nantes 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 0.981 / def 0.895 | Nantes attack 0.620 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Rennes (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Nantes xG
40%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rennes vs Nantes FAQs
What time does Rennes vs Nantes kick off?
Rennes vs Nantes kicked off at 17:15 UK time on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Nantes?
Rennes 2 - 1 Nantes.
Where is Rennes vs Nantes being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Nantes part of?
Rennes vs Nantes is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 31) (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Nantes?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 53% chance of winning, Nantes a 17% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Nantes?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Rennes and Nantes will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Rennes vs Nantes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Rennes's attack at 0.98x the league average against Nantes's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nantes's attack versus Rennes's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Rennes's last 64 games and Nantes's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
53%
1.90
30%
3.32
17%
5.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Rennes xG
Total xG
2.14
0.71
Nantes xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
5.83
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
26%
3.87
4%
24.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 8.4 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 12.0 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rennes vs Nantes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Nantes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Rennes and Nantes expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Rennes and 0.71 for Nantes, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Nantes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rennes's recent record stands at 28W 10D 26L from 64 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Nantes, meanwhile, have gone 12W 20D 32L across 64 games — 0.88 PPG, with L-D-D-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rennes by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nantes heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rennes have managed 17W 5D 10L from their last 32 home games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nantes's away record stands at 5W 11D 16L across their last 32 away games, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rennes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rennes are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Nantes are on 1.00 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Current Season
Nantes
Current Season
Rennes (Home) vs Nantes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rennes
Current Season
Nantes
Current Season
❓ Rennes vs Nantes Form FAQs
What form are Rennes and Nantes in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 28W 10D 26L in their last 64 games (1.47 PPG), while Nantes have gone 12W 20D 32L in their last 64 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rennes at home or Nantes away?
Rennes's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rennes at home: 1.75 PPG; Nantes away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Rennes or Nantes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rennes have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Nantes in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 26 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Oct 2022, when Rennes won Rennes 3-0 Nantes.
Rennes's record when hosting Nantes specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Rennes
1
Draws
2
Nantes
Recent Meetings
❓ Rennes vs Nantes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Nantes?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Rennes have won 7, Nantes have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Rennes and Nantes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 April 2026: Rennes 2-1 Nantes.
Who has won more matches between Rennes and Nantes?
Rennes have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rennes 50%, Nantes 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Rennes) and 50% (Nantes).
On the defensive side: Rennes keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Nantes in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Nantes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rennes vs Nantes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rennes and Nantes matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Rennes's games and 62% of Nantes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Rennes and Nantes matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Rennes's recent games and 50% of Nantes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rennes and Nantes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Rennes's recent matches and 72% of Nantes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rennes edge out Nantes 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rennes beat Nantes 2-1 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 1.43 xG and Nantes 0.71 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 0.98 / defence 0.90 against Nantes attack 0.62 / defence 0.99, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rennes 53% | Draw 30% | Nantes 17%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 62%, Nantes 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rennes's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Nantes's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rennes arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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