Nantes 0-1 Marseille – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Nantes at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nantes vs Marseille fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Marseille make the trip to Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau to face Nantes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Wednesday 1 December 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nantes have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Nantes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nantes's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 2L across 7 games at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau this term (1.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Marseille (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Marseille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Marseille have posted 3W 2D 1L from 6 away outings — 1.83 PPG. Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Nantes against 1.60 for Marseille. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Nantes half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Marseille half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantes 57% versus Marseille 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nantes 43% | Marseille 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 1.17 xG and Marseille 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 1.006 / defence 1.123 | Marseille attack 0.783 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.224 / away 1.215. Data: 15 Nantes games / 14 Marseille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantes 37% | Draw 32% | Marseille 31%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Marseille 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nantes at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nantes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nantes 43% | Marseille 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Marseille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Dec 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 37% | Draw 32% | Marseille 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Nantes 1.17 / Marseille 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 1.006 / def 1.123 | Marseille attack 0.783 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.224 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Nantes (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Marseille xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantes vs Marseille kick off?
Nantes vs Marseille kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 1 December 2021 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What was the final score in Nantes vs Marseille?
Nantes 0 - 1 Marseille.
Where is Nantes vs Marseille being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What competition is Nantes vs Marseille part of?
Nantes vs Marseille is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Marseille?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 37% chance of winning, Marseille a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Nantes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Marseille?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Nantes and Marseille will score (BTTS).
Will Nantes vs Marseille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Marseille?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nantes and Marseille in?
Nantes (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Marseille (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Nantes's attack rating (1.01) and Marseille's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Marseille's attack (0.78x) against Nantes's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 15/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nantes Win
37%
2.72
32%
3.14
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Nantes xG
Total xG
2.24
1.07
Marseille xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
13%
7.93
10%
10.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 11.3 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Marseille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Nantes and Marseille expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Nantes and 1.07 for Marseille, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Marseille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nantes's recent record stands at 5W 3D 6L from 14 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Nantes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Marseille, meanwhile, have gone 7W 5D 2L across 14 games — 1.86 PPG, with D-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Marseille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Marseille by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nantes heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Nantes have managed 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Marseille's away record stands at 3W 2D 1L across 6 trips, a 1.83 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Nantes are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Marseille are on 1.50 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Marseille in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Blended
Marseille
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantes and Marseille in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 5W 3D 6L in their last 14 games (1.29 PPG), while Marseille have gone 7W 5D 2L in their last 14 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantes at home or Marseille away?
Marseille's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantes at home: 1.67 PPG; Marseille away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Nantes or Marseille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nantes have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Marseille in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Nantes have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Nantes won 3-0 on 2 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nantes have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Marseille — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Nantes
1
Draws
7
Marseille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Marseille?
From 10 meetings on record, Nantes have won 2, Marseille have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and Marseille last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Nantes 3-0 Marseille.
Who has won more matches between Nantes and Marseille?
Marseille have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Marseille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantes 50%, Marseille 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Nantes and 17% for Marseille.
On the defensive side: Marseille in 50%; Nantes have failed to score in 33% of games; Marseille in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Marseille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantes play Marseille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Nantes's recent matches and 33% of Marseille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nantes vs Marseille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Nantes's recent games and 17% of Marseille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantes and Marseille tend to score early?
Nantes have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Marseille in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Marseille defy the odds to beat Nantes 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Marseille beat Nantes 0-1 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.17 xG and Marseille 1.07 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nantes fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 1.01 / defence 1.12 against Marseille attack 0.78 / defence 0.95, drawn from 15/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantes 37% | Draw 32% | Marseille 31%, with Nantes to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Marseille win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 43%, Marseille 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantes's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Marseille's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Marseille arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Nantes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Marseille (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.