Rennes 4-1 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rennes at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rennes vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Roazhon Park plays host to Rennes versus Auxerre in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 11 October 2026 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rennes have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Rennes have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rennes at Roazhon Park this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Auxerre's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Auxerre have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Rennes against 1.60 for Auxerre. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Rennes have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Auxerre in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Rennes lead 2W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2026, ended 3–0 with Rennes winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Rennes half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Auxerre half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 59% versus Auxerre 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 72% | Auxerre 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 2.10 xG and Auxerre 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 1.038 / defence 0.955 | Auxerre attack 1.068 / defence 1.274. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.249. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.274 — this is suppressing Rennes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Rennes games / 39 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rennes 56% | Draw 21% | Auxerre 23%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 1.79 | Draw 4.76 | Auxerre 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Rennes (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.10 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rennes as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.38 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Rennes 60% | Auxerre 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 56% | Draw 21% | Auxerre 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 63% | xG Rennes 2.10 / Auxerre 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 1.038 / def 0.955 | Auxerre attack 1.068 / def 1.274 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Rennes (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Auxerre xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rennes vs Auxerre kick off?
Rennes vs Auxerre kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Auxerre?
Rennes 4 - 1 Auxerre.
Where is Rennes vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Auxerre part of?
Rennes vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 56% chance of winning, Auxerre a 23% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Rennes and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Rennes vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Auxerre?
Record (6 meetings): Rennes 2W | Draws 2 | Auxerre 2W.
What form are Rennes and Auxerre in?
Rennes (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Auxerre (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rennes's attack rating (1.04) and Auxerre's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 2.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (1.07x) against Rennes's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
56%
1.77
21%
4.79
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Rennes xG
Total xG
3.38
1.27
Auxerre xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.79
21%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
12%
8.19
Win to Nil
16%
6.34
3%
36.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Rennes and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Rennes and 1.27 for Auxerre, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Auxerre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 39 outings, Rennes have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 20W 9D 10L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Rennes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Auxerre's form line: 10W 10D 19L from 39 games, 1.03 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Rennes are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Auxerre.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Rennes have posted 2.11 PPG from 19 outings (12W 4D 3L).
On the road, Auxerre have gone 2W 6D 11L from 19 away games — 0.63 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Auxerre's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rennes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rennes are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.05 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Early Season
Auxerre
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rennes and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 20W 9D 10L in their last 39 games (1.77 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 10W 10D 19L in their last 39 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rennes at home or Auxerre away?
Rennes's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rennes at home: 2.11 PPG; Auxerre away: 0.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Rennes go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rennes won 5-0 on 11 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rennes have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Auxerre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Rennes
2
Draws
2
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Auxerre?
From 7 meetings on record, Rennes have won 3, Auxerre have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rennes and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when Rennes 4-1 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Rennes and Auxerre?
Rennes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rennes 68%, Auxerre 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Rennes) and 47% (Auxerre). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Auxerre in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rennes play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Rennes's games and 53% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rennes vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Rennes's matches and 47% of Auxerre's.
Do Rennes and Auxerre tend to score early?
Rennes have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rennes run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Auxerre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rennes beat Auxerre 4-1 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 2.10 xG and Auxerre 1.27 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Rennes beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 1.04 / defence 0.95 against Auxerre attack 1.07 / defence 1.27, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rennes 56% | Draw 21% | Auxerre 23%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 72%, Auxerre 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rennes's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Auxerre's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rennes arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.03. That form edge translated into the three points. Rennes (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm. Auxerre (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.