Auxerre 2-1 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps plays host to Auxerre versus Stade Brestois 29 in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 20 September 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Auxerre's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Auxerre's home record at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Stade Brestois 29 (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Stade Brestois 29 have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stade Brestois 29 away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Auxerre's favour (1.40 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Auxerre lead 2W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2026, ended 3–0 with Auxerre winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Auxerre half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Stade Brestois 29 half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 45% versus Stade Brestois 29 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 47% | Stade Brestois 29 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.42 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.888 / defence 1.020 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.052 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.298. Data: 38 Auxerre games / 38 Stade Brestois 29 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 37% | Draw 27% | Stade Brestois 29 36%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Stade Brestois 29 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Auxerre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Auxerre 30% | Stade Brestois 29 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 37% | Draw 27% | Stade Brestois 29 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Auxerre 1.42 / Stade Brestois 29 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.888 / def 1.020 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.052 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Stade Brestois 29 xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Auxerre 2 - 1 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 37% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29 will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29?
Record (6 meetings): Auxerre 2W | Draws 2 | Stade Brestois 29 2W.
What form are Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29 in?
Auxerre (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Auxerre's attack rating (0.89) and Stade Brestois 29's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stade Brestois 29's attack (1.05x) against Auxerre's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
37%
2.71
27%
3.64
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.81
1.39
Stade Brestois 29 xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
9%
10.94
9%
11.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.9 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.39 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Auxerre's recent record stands at 9W 10D 19L from 38 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Stade Brestois 29, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 16L across 38 games — 1.16 PPG, with D-D-D-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for Auxerre against 1.16 for Stade Brestois 29. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Auxerre have managed 7W 4D 8L from 19 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stade Brestois 29's away record stands at 4W 5D 10L across 19 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Auxerre are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.29 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Early Season
Stade Brestois 29
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 9W 10D 19L in their last 38 games (0.97 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 11W 11D 16L in their last 38 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Stade Brestois 29 away?
Auxerre's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.32 PPG; Stade Brestois 29 away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Auxerre go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Auxerre won 3-0 on 27 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Auxerre have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Stade Brestois 29 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Auxerre
2
Draws
2
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29?
From 7 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 3, Stade Brestois 29 have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Auxerre 2-1 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 37%, Stade Brestois 29 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Auxerre) and 58% (Stade Brestois 29).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Auxerre have failed to score in 42% of games; Stade Brestois 29 in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Stade Brestois 29?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Auxerre's recent matches and 53% of Stade Brestois 29's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Auxerre's recent games and 58% of Stade Brestois 29's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29 tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Stade Brestois 29 in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Auxerre edge out Stade Brestois 29 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Stade Brestois 29 2-1 at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.42 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.39 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.89 / defence 1.02 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.05 / defence 1.07, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 37% | Draw 27% | Stade Brestois 29 36%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 47%, Stade Brestois 29 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 0.97 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Auxerre win broke the near-deadlock. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.