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Shock result as Rodez defy the odds to beat RED Star FC 93 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rodez beat RED Star FC 93 2-3 at Stade Bauer, Relegation round - Quarter-finals, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RED Star FC 93 1.46 xG and Rodez 1.26 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Rodez outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RED Star FC 93 attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Rodez attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RED Star FC 93 41% | Draw 28% | Rodez 32%, with RED Star FC 93 to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Rodez win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RED Star FC 93 47%, Rodez 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RED Star FC 93's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Rodez's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — RED Star FC 93 1.12 PPG, Rodez 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rodez (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights