RED Star FC 93 2-3 Rodez – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates RED Star FC 93 at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as RED Star FC 93 face Rodez.

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Fixture Analysis

RED Star FC 93 welcome Rodez to Stade Bauer in Ligue 1 (Relegation round - Quarter-finals). Kick-off is Tuesday 12 May 2026 at 20:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, RED Star FC 93 have gone 2W 6D 2L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

RED Star FC 93's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Rodez stand at 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

When travelling, Rodez have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: RED Star FC 93 1.20 PPG, Rodez 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from RED Star FC 93's last 10 home games and Rodez's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for RED Star FC 93, 0 for Rodez and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Jan 2026, ended RED Star FC 93 1–1 Rodez — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

RED Star FC 93 in-play and half-time data (last 34 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Rodez in-play and half-time data (last 34 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 58%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — RED Star FC 93 56% and Rodez 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 47% | Rodez 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: RED Star FC 93 surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Rodez have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 1.46 xG and Rodez 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Rodez attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.292. Data: built from RED Star FC 93's last 0 games and Rodez's last 0.

Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 41% | Draw 28% | Rodez 32%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 2.47 | Draw 3.59 | Rodez 3.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is RED Star FC 93 at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RED Star FC 93 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (RED Star FC 93's last 10 home games and Rodez's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: RED Star FC 93 70% (last 10 home games) | Rodez 80% (last 10 away games).

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