Stade Brestois 29 0-1 Lorient – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stade Brestois 29 at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 26 as Stade Brestois 29 welcome Lorient to Stade Francis-Le Blé. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 February 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stade Brestois 29 — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stade Brestois 29 have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stade Francis-Le Blé — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lorient stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lorient, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lorient's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
On current form, Stade Brestois 29 have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Stade Brestois 29, 0 for Lorient and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 2–1 with Stade Brestois 29 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Stade Brestois 29 trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Lorient trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stade Brestois 29 68% and Lorient 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stade Brestois 29 48% | Lorient 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Brestois 29 2.23 xG and Lorient 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.188 / defence 1.237 | Lorient attack 0.673 / defence 1.606. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.178. Lorient bring a strong defensive rating of 1.606 — this is suppressing Stade Brestois 29's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Stade Brestois 29 games / 25 Lorient games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 66% | Draw 19% | Lorient 15%. Fair-value odds: Stade Brestois 29 1.52 | Draw 5.26 | Lorient 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Stade Brestois 29 (66%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stade Brestois 29 as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Stade Brestois 29 40% | Lorient 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade Francis-Le Blé • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 66% | Draw 19% | Lorient 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 56% | xG Stade Brestois 29 2.23 / Lorient 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.188 / def 1.237 | Lorient attack 0.673 / def 1.606 | league avg home 1.170 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Stade Brestois 29 (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Lorient xG
56%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient kick off?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What was the final score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient?
Stade Brestois 29 0 - 1 Lorient.
Where is Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What competition is Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient part of?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient?
Our statistical model gives Stade Brestois 29 a 66% chance of winning, Lorient a 15% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Stade Brestois 29 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Stade Brestois 29 and Lorient will score (BTTS).
Will Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Lorient?
Record (1 meetings): Stade Brestois 29 1W | Draws 0 | Lorient 0W.
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Lorient in?
Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Lorient (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stade Brestois 29's attack rating (1.19) and Lorient's defence rating (1.61), the model arrives at 2.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lorient's attack versus Stade Brestois 29's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Brestois 29 Win
66%
1.53
19%
5.17
15%
6.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Total xG
3.21
0.98
Lorient xG
1.53
66%
Home win
5.17
19%
Draw
6.61
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
11%
9.32
Win to Nil
25%
4.07
2%
61.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Stade Brestois 29 and Lorient expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 0.98 for Lorient, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stade Brestois 29's recent record stands at 8W 8D 9L from 25 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Stade Brestois 29 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lorient, meanwhile, have gone 4W 9D 12L across 25 games — 0.84 PPG, with L-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Lorient is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stade Brestois 29 by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lorient heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Stade Brestois 29 have managed 5W 3D 4L from 12 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lorient's away record stands at 0W 4D 8L across 12 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.84 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lorient's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stade Brestois 29 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stade Brestois 29 are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Lorient are on 0.80 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stade Brestois 29 have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
Lorient
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Lorient in coming into this match?
Stade Brestois 29 have gone 8W 8D 9L in their last 25 games (1.28 PPG), while Lorient have gone 4W 9D 12L in their last 25 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stade Brestois 29 at home or Lorient away?
Stade Brestois 29's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stade Brestois 29 at home: 1.50 PPG; Lorient away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Dec 2023, when Stade Brestois 29 won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stade Brestois 29's record when hosting Lorient specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Stade Brestois 29
1
Draws
3
Lorient
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Lorient?
From 8 meetings on record, Stade Brestois 29 have won 4, Lorient have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stade Brestois 29 and Lorient last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Stade Brestois 29 2-0 Lorient.
Who has won more matches between Stade Brestois 29 and Lorient?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Lorient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stade Brestois 29 50%, Lorient 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Stade Brestois 29) and 58% (Lorient).
On the defensive side: Stade Brestois 29 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Lorient in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stade Brestois 29 home games / Lorient away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stade Brestois 29 play Lorient?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Stade Brestois 29's recent matches and 58% of Lorient's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Stade Brestois 29's recent games and 58% of Lorient's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stade Brestois 29 and Lorient tend to score early?
Stade Brestois 29 have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Lorient in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lorient defy the odds to beat Stade Brestois 29 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lorient beat Stade Brestois 29 0-1 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 2.23 xG and Lorient 0.98 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Stade Brestois 29 fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.19 / defence 1.24 against Lorient attack 0.67 / defence 1.61, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 66% | Draw 19% | Lorient 15%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Lorient win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 48%, Lorient 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Lorient's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Stade Brestois 29 arrived the stronger side — 1.28 PPG against 0.84. Form was overturned, with Lorient winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Lorient (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.