Estac Troyes 1-1 Marseille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Marseille at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estac Troyes vs Marseille encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Estac Troyes host Marseille at Stade de l'Aube in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 February 2022 at 16:05 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Estac Troyes have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estac Troyes's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Stade de l'Aube this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Marseille — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Marseille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Marseille away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Marseille — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Estac Troyes have won 0, Marseille 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with Marseille winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Estac Troyes in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Marseille in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 56% versus Marseille 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Estac Troyes 44% | Marseille 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 0.65 xG and Marseille 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.679 / defence 1.067 | Marseille attack 0.936 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.138 / away 1.170. Estac Troyes's attack strength of 0.679 is below the league average — the 0.65 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 25 Estac Troyes games / 25 Marseille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 20% | Draw 32% | Marseille 48%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 5.00 | Draw 3.12 | Marseille 2.08. Marseille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Estac Troyes's lower xG of 0.65 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Marseille as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Marseille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.82 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Estac Troyes 50% | Marseille 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Marseille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 16:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 20% | Draw 32% | Marseille 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 33% | xG Estac Troyes 0.65 / Marseille 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.679 / def 1.067 | Marseille attack 0.936 / def 0.844 | league avg home 1.138 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Marseille (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.65
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Marseille xG
33%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Marseille kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Marseille kicked off at 16:05 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Marseille?
Estac Troyes 1 - 1 Marseille.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Marseille being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Marseille part of?
Estac Troyes vs Marseille is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Marseille?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 20% chance of winning, Marseille a 48% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Marseille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Marseille?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Estac Troyes and Marseille will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Marseille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Marseille?
Record (1 meetings): Estac Troyes 0W | Draws 0 | Marseille 1W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Marseille in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Marseille (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Estac Troyes's attack rating (0.68) and Marseille's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 0.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Marseille's attack versus Estac Troyes's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (17.3%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Marseille Win
20%
4.93
32%
3.15
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.65
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
1.82
1.17
Marseille xG
4.93
20%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.00
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
52%
1.92
Win to Nil
6%
15.85
25%
4.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 18.9 | 11.1 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.3 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Marseille?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Marseille expected to score?
The model projects 0.65 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.17 for Marseille, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Marseille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Estac Troyes come into this having played 25 games, going 5W 6D 14L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Marseille sit at 1.84 PPG from 25 outings (13W 7D 5L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Marseille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Marseille carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Estac Troyes — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Estac Troyes's home form reads 2W 5D 5L across 12 games on their own ground, a 0.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Marseille have taken 2.17 points per game from 12 outings (8W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Marseille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Estac Troyes are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Marseille are on 1.52 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Marseille in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Blended
Marseille
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Marseille in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 5W 6D 14L in their last 25 games (0.84 PPG), while Marseille have gone 13W 7D 5L in their last 25 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Marseille away?
Marseille's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 0.92 PPG; Marseille away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Estac Troyes or Marseille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Marseille in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Marseille go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Estac Troyes's record when hosting Marseille specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Estac Troyes
1
Draws
3
Marseille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Marseille?
From 4 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 0, Marseille have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Marseille last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2023, when Marseille 3-1 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Marseille?
Marseille have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Marseille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 58%, Marseille 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Estac Troyes and 25% for Marseille.
On the defensive side: Marseille in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Marseille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Marseille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 33% of Marseille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estac Troyes vs Marseille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 25% of Marseille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Marseille tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Marseille in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Estac Troyes and Marseille share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes and Marseille finished level at 1-1 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 0.65 xG and Marseille 1.17 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.68 / defence 1.07 against Marseille attack 0.94 / defence 0.84, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 20% | Draw 32% | Marseille 48%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 44%, Marseille 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Marseille's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Marseille arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.