Paris Saint Germain 1-2 Lyon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Paris Saint Germain (59%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Paris Saint Germain face Lyon.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Paris Saint Germain host Lyon at Parc des Princes in Ligue 1 (matchday 30). Kick-off is Sunday 19 April 2026 at 20:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Paris Saint Germain — last 10 games: 8W 0D 2L, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Paris Saint Germain have posted 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lyon stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Lyon have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
On current form, Paris Saint Germain have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
Paris Saint Germain hold a clear advantage across the 8 H2H matches in our data, with 6 wins compared to 1 for Lyon and 1 draw.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2025, ended Paris Saint Germain 3–2 Lyon — a Paris Saint Germain win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Paris Saint Germain and goals — 6 wins from 8 H2H matches and an average of 3.5 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Paris Saint Germain in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Lyon in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris Saint Germain 62% versus Lyon 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris Saint Germain 67% | Lyon 57%). Note also that Lyon surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Paris Saint Germain recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 56% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris Saint Germain 1.99 xG and Lyon 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.476 / defence 0.814 | Lyon attack 0.992 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.224. Paris Saint Germain carry an above-average attack rating of 1.476 — their 1.99 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Paris Saint Germain's last 61 games and Lyon's last 63.
Result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 59% | Draw 24% | Lyon 17%. Fair-value odds: Paris Saint Germain 1.69 | Draw 4.19 | Lyon 5.94. The model has a clear lean to Paris Saint Germain (59%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Paris Saint Germain's last 10 home games and Lyon's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Paris Saint Germain 40% (last 10 home games) | Lyon 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 30 | Venue: Parc des Princes • Kick-off: Sunday 19 April 2026 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 59% | Draw 24% | Lyon 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Paris Saint Germain 1.99 / Lyon 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.476 / def 0.814 | Lyon attack 0.992 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.442 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Paris Saint Germain xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Lyon xG
55%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon FAQs
What time does Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon kick off?
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Parc des Princes.
What was the final score in Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon?
Paris Saint Germain 1 - 2 Lyon.
Where is Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Princes.
What competition is Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon part of?
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 30) (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Paris Saint Germain a 59% chance of winning, Lyon a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Paris Saint Germain and Lyon will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Paris Saint Germain's attacking strength (1.48x league average) is weighed against Lyon's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.99. The same calculation in reverse, Lyon's attack versus Paris Saint Germain's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Paris Saint Germain's last 61 games and Lyon's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
59%
1.69
24%
4.19
17%
5.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Paris Saint Germain xG
Total xG
2.98
0.99
Lyon xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
5.94
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
14%
7.31
Win to Nil
22%
4.53
2%
43.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Paris Saint Germain and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 0.99 for Lyon, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Paris Saint Germain's recent record stands at 46W 9D 6L from 61 games, a 2.41 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Lyon, meanwhile, have gone 32W 12D 17L across 61 games — 1.77 PPG, with D-D-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Paris Saint Germain by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lyon heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Paris Saint Germain have managed 25W 3D 2L from their last 30 home games — 2.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lyon's away record stands at 11W 8D 11L across their last 30 away games, a 1.37 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Paris Saint Germain are averaging 2.51 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.77 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Paris Saint Germain have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Lyon in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
Lyon
Current Season
Paris Saint Germain (Home) vs Lyon (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
Lyon
Current Season
❓ Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon Form FAQs
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Lyon in coming into this match?
Paris Saint Germain have gone 46W 9D 6L in their last 61 games (2.41 PPG), while Lyon have gone 32W 12D 17L in their last 61 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris Saint Germain at home or Lyon away?
Paris Saint Germain's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris Saint Germain at home: 2.60 PPG; Lyon away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Paris Saint Germain or Lyon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Lyon in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from January 2022. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 26 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Sep 2023, when Paris Saint Germain won Lyon 1-4 Paris Saint Germain.
Paris Saint Germain's record when hosting Lyon specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Paris Saint Germain
1
Draws
2
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Lyon?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Paris Saint Germain have won 7, Lyon have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Paris Saint Germain and Lyon last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 October 2026: Paris Saint Germain 2-0 Lyon.
Who has won more matches between Paris Saint Germain and Lyon?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris Saint Germain 57%, Lyon 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Paris Saint Germain and 57% for Lyon. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Paris Saint Germain keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Lyon in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris Saint Germain home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Paris Saint Germain and Lyon matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Paris Saint Germain's games and 60% of Lyon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Paris Saint Germain and Lyon matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Paris Saint Germain's matches and 57% of Lyon's.
Do Paris Saint Germain and Lyon matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of Paris Saint Germain's recent matches and 70% of Lyon's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lyon defy the odds to beat Paris Saint Germain 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lyon beat Paris Saint Germain 1-2 at Parc des Princes, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris Saint Germain 1.99 xG and Lyon 0.99 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Paris Saint Germain fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Lyon outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris Saint Germain attack 1.48 / defence 0.81 against Lyon attack 0.99 / defence 0.93, drawn from 61/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris Saint Germain 59% | Draw 24% | Lyon 17%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Lyon win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris Saint Germain 67%, Lyon 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Lyon's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.77. Form was overturned, with Lyon winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.63 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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