🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Paris Saint Germain (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Paris Saint Germain face Toulouse.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Toulouse travel to Parc des Princes to take on Paris Saint Germain. The game is scheduled for Friday 3 April 2026, 19:45 UTC.

Form Guide

Paris Saint Germain — All Games: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Parc des Princes, Paris Saint Germain have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parc des Princes. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Toulouse stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Toulouse have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

On current form, Paris Saint Germain have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

Paris Saint Germain hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 7 previous encounters compared to 1 for Toulouse, with 1 draws in between.

The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 6–3 with Paris Saint Germain winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Paris Saint Germain and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Patterns

Paris Saint Germain in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

Toulouse in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris Saint Germain 62% versus Toulouse 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris Saint Germain 67% | Toulouse 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Paris Saint Germain 2.15 xG and Toulouse 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.486 / defence 0.822 | Toulouse attack 1.099 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.217. Paris Saint Germain carry an above-average attack strength of 1.486 — their λ of 2.15 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 60 Paris Saint Germain games / 61 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 61% | Draw 20% | Toulouse 19%. Fair-value odds: Paris Saint Germain 1.64 | Draw 5.00 | Toulouse 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Paris Saint Germain (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris Saint Germain at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Paris Saint Germain 30% | Toulouse 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights