Nice 1-1 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nice at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nice vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nice and Auxerre meet at Allianz Riviera in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Friday 3 March 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nice have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Allianz Riviera, Nice have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Riviera. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Auxerre (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Auxerre have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Nice's 2.10 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Auxerre's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nice lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Nice — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Auxerre — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 43% versus Auxerre 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 46% | Auxerre 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 1.73 xG and Auxerre 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 1.047 / defence 0.693 | Auxerre attack 0.741 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.261. Nice's defence rating of 0.693 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 63 Nice games / 25 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nice 62% | Draw 26% | Auxerre 12%. Fair-value odds: Nice 1.61 | Draw 3.85 | Auxerre 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Nice (62%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nice are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nice 30% | Auxerre 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Friday 3 Mar 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 62% | Draw 26% | Auxerre 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 41% | xG Nice 1.73 / Auxerre 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 1.047 / def 0.693 | Auxerre attack 0.741 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.460 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Nice (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Nice xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Auxerre xG
41%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Auxerre kick off?
Nice vs Auxerre kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 3 March 2023 at Allianz Riviera.
What was the final score in Nice vs Auxerre?
Nice 1 - 1 Auxerre.
Where is Nice vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Auxerre part of?
Nice vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 62% chance of winning, Auxerre a 12% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Nice and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Auxerre?
Record (1 meetings): Nice 0W | Draws 1 | Auxerre 0W.
What form are Nice and Auxerre in?
Nice (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Auxerre (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Nice's attack at 1.05x the league average against Auxerre's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (0.74x) against Nice's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.65.
These ratings are built from 63/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.9%), 1-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
62%
1.61
26%
3.89
12%
8.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Nice xG
Total xG
2.38
0.65
Auxerre xG
1.61
62%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
8.30
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
52%
1.91
18%
5.66
Win to Nil
33%
3.07
2%
47.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 10.4 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.9 | 9.0 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Nice and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Nice and 0.65 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Auxerre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 63 outings, Nice have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 31W 15D 17L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Auxerre's form line: 24W 19D 20L from 63 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-W. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for Nice against 1.44 for Auxerre. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Nice have posted 1.71 PPG from 31 outings (15W 8D 8L).
On the road, Auxerre have gone 11W 9D 11L from 31 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Nice are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.27 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Auxerre in 60%.
Defensively: Nice have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 31W 15D 17L in their last 63 games (1.71 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 24W 19D 20L in their last 63 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Auxerre away?
Nice's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 1.71 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Nice or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nice have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Auxerre in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nice have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Auxerre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Nice
3
Draws
2
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Auxerre?
From 6 meetings on record, Nice have won 1, Auxerre have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Auxerre 2-1 Nice.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 45%, Auxerre 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Nice) and 52% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Nice keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Nice have failed to score in 32% of games; Auxerre in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Auxerre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Nice's recent matches and 61% of Auxerre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nice vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Nice's recent games and 52% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nice and Auxerre tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nice and Auxerre share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nice and Auxerre finished level at 1-1 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.73 xG and Auxerre 0.65 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 1.05 / defence 0.69 against Auxerre attack 0.74 / defence 1.14, drawn from 63/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nice 62% | Draw 26% | Auxerre 12%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 62%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 46%, Auxerre 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nice's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Auxerre's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nice 1.71 PPG, Auxerre 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.