Lorient 0-1 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lorient at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lorient vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 25 as Lorient welcome Auxerre to Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 February 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Lorient have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lorient, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lorient have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Auxerre — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Lorient have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lorient register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Auxerre in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Lorient, 0 for Auxerre and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2022, ended 3–1 with Lorient winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lorient in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lorient 58% versus Auxerre 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lorient 53% | Auxerre 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lorient 1.77 xG and Auxerre 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lorient attack 0.960 / defence 0.930 | Auxerre attack 0.733 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.252. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.230 — this is suppressing Lorient's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Lorient games / 24 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lorient 57% | Draw 27% | Auxerre 16%. Fair-value odds: Lorient 1.75 | Draw 3.70 | Auxerre 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Lorient (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lorient as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Lorient 60% | Auxerre 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lorient vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Feb 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lorient 57% | Draw 27% | Auxerre 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 50% | xG Lorient 1.77 / Auxerre 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Lorient attack 0.960 / def 0.930 | Auxerre attack 0.733 / def 1.230 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Lorient (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Lorient xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Auxerre xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lorient vs Auxerre kick off?
Lorient vs Auxerre kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 26 February 2023 at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir.
What was the final score in Lorient vs Auxerre?
Lorient 0 - 1 Auxerre.
Where is Lorient vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir.
What competition is Lorient vs Auxerre part of?
Lorient vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lorient vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Lorient a 57% chance of winning, Auxerre a 16% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lorient the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lorient vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Lorient and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Lorient vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lorient and Auxerre?
Record (1 meetings): Lorient 1W | Draws 0 | Auxerre 0W.
What form are Lorient and Auxerre in?
Lorient (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Auxerre (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lorient's attack at 0.96x the league average against Auxerre's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Lorient's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lorient Win
57%
1.75
27%
3.67
16%
6.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Lorient xG
Total xG
2.62
0.85
Auxerre xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
6.37
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
24%
4.11
3%
37.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 10.9 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lorient vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Lorient and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Lorient and 0.85 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Lorient vs Auxerre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lorient's recent record stands at 19W 18D 25L from 62 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Lorient is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Auxerre, meanwhile, have gone 23W 19D 20L across 62 games — 1.42 PPG, with L-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lorient on 1.21 PPG, Auxerre on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lorient have managed 12W 9D 10L from 31 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Auxerre's away record stands at 10W 10D 11L across 31 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Lorient are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.27 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Auxerre in 61%.
Last 62 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lorient
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lorient and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Lorient have gone 19W 18D 25L in their last 62 games (1.21 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 23W 19D 20L in their last 62 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lorient at home or Auxerre away?
Lorient's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lorient at home: 1.45 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lorient's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Lorient
1
Draws
2
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lorient and Auxerre?
From 4 meetings on record, Lorient have won 1, Auxerre have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lorient and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Lorient 2-2 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Lorient and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lorient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lorient 55%, Auxerre 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Lorient) and 52% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Lorient have failed to score in 29% of games; Auxerre in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lorient home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lorient play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Lorient's games and 64% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lorient vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Lorient's recent games and 52% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lorient and Auxerre tend to score early?
Lorient have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Auxerre defy the odds to beat Lorient 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Lorient 0-1 at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lorient 1.77 xG and Auxerre 0.85 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lorient fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lorient attack 0.96 / defence 0.93 against Auxerre attack 0.73 / defence 1.23, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lorient 57% | Draw 27% | Auxerre 16%, with Lorient to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Auxerre win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lorient 53%, Auxerre 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lorient's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Auxerre's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lorient 1.21 PPG, Auxerre 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Auxerre win broke the near-deadlock. Lorient (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Auxerre (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.