Auxerre 0-0 Rennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rennes at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Rennes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rennes make the trip to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps to face Auxerre in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 March 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Auxerre's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Rennes (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Rennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rennes away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Rennes arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Auxerre, 1 for Rennes and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2022, ended 0–5 with Rennes winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Auxerre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Rennes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 61% versus Rennes 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 50% | Rennes 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.12 xG and Rennes 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.693 / defence 1.275 | Rennes attack 0.965 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.254. Auxerre's attack strength of 0.693 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 Auxerre games / 64 Rennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 26% | Draw 28% | Rennes 46%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Rennes 2.17. Rennes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rennes are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rennes if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 50% | Rennes 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Rennes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Mar 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 26% | Draw 28% | Rennes 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Auxerre 1.12 / Rennes 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.693 / def 1.275 | Rennes attack 0.965 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Rennes (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Rennes xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Rennes kick off?
Auxerre vs Rennes kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 11 March 2023 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Rennes?
Auxerre 0 - 0 Rennes.
Where is Auxerre vs Rennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Rennes part of?
Auxerre vs Rennes is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Rennes?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 26% chance of winning, Rennes a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Rennes?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Auxerre and Rennes will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Rennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Rennes?
Record (1 meetings): Auxerre 0W | Draws 0 | Rennes 1W.
What form are Auxerre and Rennes in?
Auxerre (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Rennes (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Auxerre's attack at 0.69x the league average against Rennes's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rennes's attack (0.96x) against Auxerre's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 26/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
26%
3.82
28%
3.57
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.66
1.54
Rennes xG
3.82
26%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
21%
4.68
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
6%
17.85
15%
6.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.8 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Rennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Rennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.54 for Rennes, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Rennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 64 outings, Auxerre have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 24W 20D 20L record — D-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rennes's form line: 34W 10D 20L from 64 games, 1.75 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Rennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Auxerre against 1.75 for Rennes. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Auxerre have posted 1.55 PPG from 31 outings (13W 9D 9L).
On the road, Rennes have gone 9W 9D 13L from 31 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rennes's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Auxerre are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Rennes are on 1.98 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Auxerre have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Rennes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Rennes in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 24W 20D 20L in their last 64 games (1.44 PPG), while Rennes have gone 34W 10D 20L in their last 64 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Rennes away?
Auxerre's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.55 PPG; Rennes away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Rennes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Rennes in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rennes won 5-0 on 11 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Auxerre have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Rennes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Auxerre
2
Draws
2
Rennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Rennes?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 2, Rennes have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Rennes last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Auxerre 0-3 Rennes.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 58% for Auxerre, 74% for Rennes — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Auxerre) and 58% (Rennes).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Rennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Rennes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Auxerre's games and 74% of Rennes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Auxerre vs Rennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Auxerre's recent games and 58% of Rennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Rennes tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Rennes in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Auxerre's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre and Rennes finished level at 0-0 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.12 xG and Rennes 1.54 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Auxerre fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Rennes landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.69 / defence 1.27 against Rennes attack 0.96 / defence 1.11, drawn from 26/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 26% | Draw 28% | Rennes 46%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 50%, Rennes 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Rennes's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.44 PPG, Rennes 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Rennes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.