Nantes 2-1 Rennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rennes at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nantes vs Rennes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 36 as Nantes welcome Rennes to Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 11 May 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Nantes have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Nantes's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Nantes are significantly better at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau than their overall form suggests.
Rennes — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Rennes away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Rennes — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Nantes, 1 for Rennes and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Rennes winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Nantes in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Rennes in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantes 54% versus Rennes 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantes 40% | Rennes 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 1.62 xG and Rennes 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 1.113 / defence 1.140 | Rennes attack 1.159 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 1.256. Data: 35 Nantes games / 35 Rennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantes 38% | Draw 23% | Rennes 39%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 2.63 | Draw 4.35 | Rennes 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rennes as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rennes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Nantes 50% | Rennes 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Rennes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 May 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 38% | Draw 23% | Rennes 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Nantes 1.62 / Rennes 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 1.113 / def 1.140 | Rennes attack 1.159 / def 1.195 | league avg home 1.220 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Rennes (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Rennes xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantes vs Rennes kick off?
Nantes vs Rennes kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 11 May 2022 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What was the final score in Nantes vs Rennes?
Nantes 2 - 1 Rennes.
Where is Nantes vs Rennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What competition is Nantes vs Rennes part of?
Nantes vs Rennes is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Rennes?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 38% chance of winning, Rennes a 39% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Rennes?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Nantes and Rennes will score (BTTS).
Will Nantes vs Rennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Rennes?
Record (1 meetings): Nantes 0W | Draws 0 | Rennes 1W.
What form are Nantes and Rennes in?
Nantes (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Rennes (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Nantes's attack at 1.11x the league average against Rennes's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rennes's attack versus Nantes's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
38%
2.66
23%
4.33
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Nantes xG
Total xG
3.28
1.66
Rennes xG
2.66
38%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
19%
5.26
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
7%
13.97
8%
12.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.1 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.2 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Rennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Nantes and Rennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Nantes and 1.66 for Rennes, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Rennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nantes's recent record stands at 14W 9D 12L from 35 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-D in the last five.
Rennes, meanwhile, have gone 19W 5D 11L across 35 games — 1.77 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nantes on 1.46 PPG, Rennes on 1.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nantes have managed 10W 3D 4L from 17 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.46 PPG overall — Nantes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Rennes's away record stands at 6W 4D 7L across 17 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.77 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rennes's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nantes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nantes are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Rennes are on 2.20 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Rennes in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Current Season
Rennes
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantes and Rennes in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 14W 9D 12L in their last 35 games (1.46 PPG), while Rennes have gone 19W 5D 11L in their last 35 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantes at home or Rennes away?
Nantes's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantes at home: 1.94 PPG; Rennes away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Nantes or Rennes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nantes have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Rennes in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Oct 2022, when Rennes won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nantes's record when hosting Rennes specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Nantes
1
Draws
7
Rennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Rennes?
From 10 meetings on record, Nantes have won 2, Rennes have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and Rennes last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Rennes 2-1 Nantes.
Who has won more matches between Nantes and Rennes?
Rennes have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Rennes see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantes 47%, Rennes 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Nantes) and 53% (Rennes).
On the defensive side: Nantes have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Rennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantes play Rennes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Nantes's recent matches and 59% of Rennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nantes vs Rennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Nantes's recent games and 53% of Rennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantes and Rennes tend to score early?
Nantes have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Rennes in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nantes defy the odds to beat Rennes 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nantes beat Rennes 2-1 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau, Regular Season - 36, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.62 xG and Rennes 1.66 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 1.11 / defence 1.14 against Rennes attack 1.16 / defence 1.20, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantes 38% | Draw 23% | Rennes 39%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Nantes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 40%, Rennes 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantes's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Rennes's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nantes 1.46 PPG, Rennes 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nantes win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.