Clermont Foot 2-1 Montpellier – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Montpellier at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs Montpellier fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 36 as Clermont Foot welcome Montpellier to Stade Gabriel Montpied. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 May 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Clermont Foot have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Clermont Foot have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Montpellier — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Montpellier's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Clermont Foot 0.60 PPG, Montpellier 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Clermont Foot, 1 for Montpellier and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with Montpellier winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Clermont Foot trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Montpellier trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 49% versus Montpellier 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 49% | Montpellier 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.32 xG and Montpellier 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.783 / defence 1.676 | Montpellier attack 0.764 / defence 1.406. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 1.226. Clermont Foot's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.32 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Montpellier bring a strong defensive rating of 1.406 — this is suppressing Clermont Foot's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Clermont Foot games / 35 Montpellier games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 32% | Draw 25% | Montpellier 43%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | Montpellier 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Montpellier as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Montpellier offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 70% | Montpellier 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Montpellier | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 32% | Draw 25% | Montpellier 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Clermont Foot 1.32 / Montpellier 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.783 / def 1.676 | Montpellier attack 0.764 / def 1.406 | league avg home 1.200 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Montpellier (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Montpellier xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Montpellier kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Montpellier kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 8 May 2022 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Montpellier?
Clermont Foot 2 - 1 Montpellier.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Montpellier being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Montpellier part of?
Clermont Foot vs Montpellier is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Montpellier?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 32% chance of winning, Montpellier a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Montpellier the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Montpellier?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Clermont Foot and Montpellier will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Montpellier have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Montpellier?
Record (1 meetings): Clermont Foot 0W | Draws 0 | Montpellier 1W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Montpellier in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Montpellier (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Clermont Foot's attack rating (0.78) and Montpellier's defence rating (1.41), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Montpellier's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Montpellier Win
32%
3.11
25%
4.07
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.89
1.57
Montpellier xG
3.11
32%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
21%
4.81
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
7%
14.97
12%
8.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.5 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Montpellier?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Montpellier expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.57 for Montpellier, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Montpellier?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Clermont Foot's recent record stands at 8W 9D 18L from 35 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-L in the last five.
Montpellier, meanwhile, have gone 12W 7D 16L across 35 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Clermont Foot on 0.94 PPG, Montpellier on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Clermont Foot have managed 3W 6D 8L from 17 games — 0.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Montpellier's away record stands at 5W 2D 10L across 17 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Montpellier are on 1.37 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Current Season
Montpellier
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Montpellier in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 8W 9D 18L in their last 35 games (0.94 PPG), while Montpellier have gone 12W 7D 16L in their last 35 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Montpellier away?
Montpellier's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 0.88 PPG; Montpellier away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Clermont Foot's record when hosting Montpellier specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Clermont Foot
4
Draws
2
Montpellier
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Montpellier?
From 8 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 2, Montpellier have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Montpellier last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Montpellier 1-2 Clermont Foot.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 65%, Montpellier 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Clermont Foot) and 47% (Montpellier).
On the defensive side: Montpellier in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Montpellier away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Montpellier?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Clermont Foot's games and 47% of Montpellier's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Clermont Foot vs Montpellier usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 47% of Montpellier's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Montpellier tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Montpellier in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Clermont Foot defy the odds to beat Montpellier 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot beat Montpellier 2-1 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 36, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.32 xG and Montpellier 1.57 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.78 / defence 1.68 against Montpellier attack 0.76 / defence 1.41, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 32% | Draw 25% | Montpellier 43%, with Montpellier to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Clermont Foot win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 49%, Montpellier 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Montpellier's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 0.94 PPG, Montpellier 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Clermont Foot win broke the near-deadlock. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.