Angers 4-1 Bordeaux – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Angers at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Angers vs Bordeaux fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Bordeaux travel to Stade Raymond-Kopa to take on Angers. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 May 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Angers have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Angers at Stade Raymond-Kopa this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bordeaux stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Bordeaux's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 3.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Angers 0.60 PPG, Bordeaux 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Angers, 0 for Bordeaux and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Angers trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Bordeaux trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Angers 57% and Bordeaux 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 46% | Bordeaux 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.57 xG and Bordeaux 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 0.644 / defence 1.227 | Bordeaux attack 0.861 / defence 2.027. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 1.226. Angers's attack strength of 0.644 is below the league average — the 1.57 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bordeaux bring a strong defensive rating of 2.027 — this is suppressing Angers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Angers games / 35 Bordeaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Angers 44% | Draw 25% | Bordeaux 32%. Fair-value odds: Angers 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Bordeaux 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Angers as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Angers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Angers 40% | Bordeaux 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Bordeaux | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stade Raymond-Kopa • Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 44% | Draw 25% | Bordeaux 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Angers 1.57 / Bordeaux 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 0.644 / def 1.227 | Bordeaux attack 0.861 / def 2.027 | league avg home 1.200 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Angers (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Angers xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Bordeaux xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Angers vs Bordeaux kick off?
Angers vs Bordeaux kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 8 May 2022 at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Bordeaux?
Angers 4 - 1 Bordeaux.
Where is Angers vs Bordeaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Bordeaux part of?
Angers vs Bordeaux is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Bordeaux?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 44% chance of winning, Bordeaux a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Angers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Bordeaux?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Angers and Bordeaux will score (BTTS).
Will Angers vs Bordeaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Bordeaux?
Record (1 meetings): Angers 0W | Draws 1 | Bordeaux 0W.
What form are Angers and Bordeaux in?
Angers (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Bordeaux (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Angers's attack at 0.64x the league average against Bordeaux's defence at 2.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bordeaux's attack versus Angers's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Angers Win
44%
2.29
25%
4.05
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Angers xG
Total xG
2.86
1.29
Bordeaux xG
2.29
44%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
12%
8.34
7%
15.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.6 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Bordeaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Angers and Bordeaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Angers and 1.29 for Bordeaux, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Bordeaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 35 outings, Angers have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 8W 11D 16L record — D-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Bordeaux's form line: 5W 12D 18L from 35 games, 0.77 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Angers on 1.00 PPG, Bordeaux on 0.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Angers have posted 1.18 PPG from 17 outings (6W 2D 9L).
On the road, Bordeaux have gone 2W 6D 9L from 17 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Angers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Angers are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Bordeaux are on 1.34 scored and 2.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bordeaux in 69%.
Last 35 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Current Season
Bordeaux
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Angers and Bordeaux in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 8W 11D 16L in their last 35 games (1.00 PPG), while Bordeaux have gone 5W 12D 18L in their last 35 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Bordeaux away?
Angers's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 1.18 PPG; Bordeaux away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Angers and Bordeaux runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 May 2022, when Angers won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Angers's record when hosting Bordeaux specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Angers
1
Draws
1
Bordeaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Bordeaux?
From 4 meetings on record, Angers have won 2, Bordeaux have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Bordeaux last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2024, when Bordeaux 1-0 Angers.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Bordeaux?
Angers have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 41%, Bordeaux 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Angers and 82% for Bordeaux. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Angers have failed to score in 35% of games; Bordeaux in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Bordeaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Angers play Bordeaux?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Angers's recent matches and 65% of Bordeaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Angers vs Bordeaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Angers's matches and 82% of Bordeaux's.
Do Angers and Bordeaux tend to score early?
Angers have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Bordeaux in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Angers run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Bordeaux.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Angers beat Bordeaux 4-1 at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 36, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.57 xG and Bordeaux 1.29 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Angers beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.64 / defence 1.23 against Bordeaux attack 0.86 / defence 2.03, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 44% | Draw 25% | Bordeaux 32%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 46%, Bordeaux 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Bordeaux's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Angers 1.00 PPG, Bordeaux 0.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Angers win broke the near-deadlock. Angers (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Bordeaux (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 3.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.