Lyon 3-2 Nantes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lyon at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lyon vs Nantes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Nantes travel to Groupama Stadium to take on Lyon. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 May 2022, 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lyon — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Lyon's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Groupama Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nantes stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Nantes away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lyon 1.70 PPG, Nantes 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Lyon, 0 for Nantes and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Lyon winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Lyon in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Nantes in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lyon 67% and Nantes 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lyon 53% | Nantes 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lyon 2.13 xG and Nantes 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lyon attack 1.400 / defence 1.266 | Nantes attack 0.859 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 1.251. Lyon carry an above-average attack strength of 1.400 — their λ of 2.13 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Nantes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.246 — this is suppressing Lyon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Lyon games / 36 Nantes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lyon 55% | Draw 21% | Nantes 24%. Fair-value odds: Lyon 1.82 | Draw 4.76 | Nantes 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Lyon (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.13 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lyon are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.49 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lyon 70% | Nantes 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lyon vs Nantes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Groupama Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lyon 55% | Draw 21% | Nantes 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 66% | xG Lyon 2.13 / Nantes 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Lyon attack 1.400 / def 1.266 | Nantes attack 0.859 / def 1.246 | league avg home 1.222 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Lyon (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Lyon xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Nantes xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lyon vs Nantes kick off?
Lyon vs Nantes kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Groupama Stadium.
What was the final score in Lyon vs Nantes?
Lyon 3 - 2 Nantes.
Where is Lyon vs Nantes being played?
The match is being played at Groupama Stadium.
What competition is Lyon vs Nantes part of?
Lyon vs Nantes is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lyon vs Nantes?
Our statistical model gives Lyon a 55% chance of winning, Nantes a 24% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Nantes?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Lyon and Nantes will score (BTTS).
Will Lyon vs Nantes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Nantes?
Record (1 meetings): Lyon 1W | Draws 0 | Nantes 0W.
What form are Lyon and Nantes in?
Lyon (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Nantes (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lyon's attack rating (1.40) and Nantes's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 2.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nantes's attack versus Lyon's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
55%
1.81
21%
4.82
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Lyon xG
Total xG
3.49
1.36
Nantes xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.82
21%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.53
34%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
12%
8.42
Win to Nil
14%
7.07
3%
34.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lyon vs Nantes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Lyon and Nantes expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Lyon and 1.36 for Nantes, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Lyon vs Nantes?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lyon's recent record stands at 15W 11D 10L from 36 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Nantes, meanwhile, have gone 15W 9D 12L across 36 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-L-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lyon on 1.56 PPG, Nantes on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lyon have managed 10W 5D 3L from 18 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nantes's away record stands at 4W 6D 8L across 18 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nantes's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lyon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lyon are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Nantes are on 1.44 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lyon have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lyon
Current Season
Nantes
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lyon and Nantes in coming into this match?
Lyon have gone 15W 11D 10L in their last 36 games (1.56 PPG), while Nantes have gone 15W 9D 12L in their last 36 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lyon at home or Nantes away?
Lyon's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lyon at home: 1.94 PPG; Nantes away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lyon have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Nov 2025, when Lyon won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lyon's record when hosting Nantes specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Lyon
3
Draws
0
Nantes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Nantes?
From 10 meetings on record, Lyon have won 7, Nantes have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lyon and Nantes last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Nantes 0-1 Lyon.
Who has won more matches between Lyon and Nantes?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Nantes see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lyon at 78%, Nantes at 61%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Lyon) and 39% (Nantes).
On the defensive side: Nantes in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lyon home games / Nantes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lyon play Nantes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Lyon's games and 61% of Nantes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lyon vs Nantes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Lyon's recent games and 39% of Nantes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lyon and Nantes tend to score early?
Lyon have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Nantes in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lyon edge out Nantes 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lyon beat Nantes 3-2 at Groupama Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 2.13 xG and Nantes 1.36 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Lyon beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 1.40 / defence 1.27 against Nantes attack 0.86 / defence 1.25, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lyon 55% | Draw 21% | Nantes 24%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 53%, Nantes 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lyon's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Nantes's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lyon 1.56 PPG, Nantes 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lyon win broke the near-deadlock. Lyon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm. Nantes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.