Nantes 0-0 Lyon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nantes at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nantes vs Lyon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nantes host Lyon at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 11 January 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nantes stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nantes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nantes at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Nantes are significantly better at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau than their overall form suggests.
Lyon — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lyon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lyon's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nantes at 1.10 PPG versus Lyon's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Nantes have won 0, Lyon 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2022, ended 2–3 with Lyon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Nantes trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Lyon trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nantes 58% and Lyon 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantes 44% | Lyon 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 1.53 xG and Lyon 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 1.000 / defence 0.929 | Lyon attack 1.140 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.339. Data: 55 Nantes games / 55 Lyon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantes 40% | Draw 25% | Lyon 35%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Lyon 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nantes as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nantes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Nantes 70% | Lyon 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 Jan 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 40% | Draw 25% | Lyon 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Nantes 1.53 / Lyon 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 1.000 / def 0.929 | Lyon attack 1.140 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Nantes (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Lyon xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantes vs Lyon kick off?
Nantes vs Lyon kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 11 January 2023 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What was the final score in Nantes vs Lyon?
Nantes 0 - 0 Lyon.
Where is Nantes vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What competition is Nantes vs Lyon part of?
Nantes vs Lyon is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 40% chance of winning, Lyon a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Nantes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Nantes and Lyon will score (BTTS).
Will Nantes vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Lyon?
Record (2 meetings): Nantes 0W | Draws 0 | Lyon 2W.
What form are Nantes and Lyon in?
Nantes (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. Lyon (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nantes's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Lyon's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Lyon's attack versus Nantes's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nantes Win
40%
2.50
25%
3.97
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Nantes xG
Total xG
2.95
1.42
Lyon xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
10%
10.32
8%
13.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.4 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Nantes and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Nantes and 1.42 for Lyon, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Lyon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nantes come into this having played 55 games, going 18W 18D 19L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-W. The sample for Nantes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lyon sit at 1.56 PPG from 55 outings (24W 14D 17L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Lyon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nantes on 1.31 PPG, Lyon on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Nantes's home form reads 14W 8D 5L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.85 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — Nantes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Lyon have taken 1.15 points per game from 27 outings (8W 7D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lyon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nantes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nantes are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.69 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lyon in 67%.
Last 55 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Blended
Lyon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantes and Lyon in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 18W 18D 19L in their last 55 games (1.31 PPG), while Lyon have gone 24W 14D 17L in their last 55 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantes at home or Lyon away?
Nantes's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantes at home: 1.85 PPG; Lyon away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nantes and Lyon runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lyon go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Nov 2025, when Lyon won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nantes's record when hosting Lyon specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Nantes
3
Draws
7
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Lyon?
From 10 meetings on record, Nantes have won 0, Lyon have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and Lyon last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Nantes 0-1 Lyon.
Who has won more matches between Nantes and Lyon?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantes 56%, Lyon 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Nantes) and 56% (Lyon).
On the defensive side: Nantes have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantes play Lyon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Nantes's games and 63% of Lyon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nantes vs Lyon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Nantes's recent games and 56% of Lyon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantes and Lyon tend to score early?
Nantes have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Lyon in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Nantes's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nantes and Lyon finished level at 0-0 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.53 xG and Lyon 1.42 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nantes fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Lyon landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 1.00 / defence 0.93 against Lyon attack 1.14 / defence 1.04, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantes 40% | Draw 25% | Lyon 35%, with Nantes to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 44%, Lyon 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantes's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lyon's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nantes 1.31 PPG, Lyon 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nantes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Lyon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.