Clermont Foot 2-1 Rennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rennes at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Clermont Foot vs Rennes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 18 as Clermont Foot welcome Rennes to Stade Gabriel Montpied. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 11 January 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Clermont Foot stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot's home record at Stade Gabriel Montpied: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Rennes have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Rennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Rennes have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Rennes's 2.30 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Clermont Foot's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Clermont Foot register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Rennes in 100% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Clermont Foot, 1 for Rennes and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2022, ended 2–1 with Clermont Foot winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Clermont Foot in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Rennes in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 53% versus Rennes 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 49% | Rennes 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.20 xG and Rennes 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.785 / defence 1.188 | Rennes attack 1.015 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.339. Clermont Foot's attack strength of 0.785 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 55 Clermont Foot games / 55 Rennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 28% | Draw 25% | Rennes 47%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | Rennes 2.13. Rennes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rennes are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rennes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 60% | Rennes 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Rennes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 Jan 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 28% | Draw 25% | Rennes 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Clermont Foot 1.20 / Rennes 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.785 / def 1.188 | Rennes attack 1.015 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Rennes (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Rennes xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Rennes kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Rennes kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 11 January 2023 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Rennes?
Clermont Foot 2 - 1 Rennes.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Rennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Rennes part of?
Clermont Foot vs Rennes is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Rennes?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 28% chance of winning, Rennes a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Rennes?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Clermont Foot and Rennes will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Rennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Rennes?
Record (2 meetings): Clermont Foot 1W | Draws 0 | Rennes 1W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Rennes in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Rennes (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Clermont Foot's attack rating (0.79) and Rennes's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rennes's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
28%
3.58
25%
3.95
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.81
1.61
Rennes xG
3.58
28%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
20%
5.02
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
6%
17.99
14%
7.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.7 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Rennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Rennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.61 for Rennes, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Rennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Clermont Foot come into this having played 55 games, going 15W 13D 27L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-W. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rennes sit at 1.82 PPG from 55 outings (30W 10D 15L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Rennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rennes carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Clermont Foot's home form reads 7W 7D 13L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Rennes have taken 1.22 points per game from 27 outings (8W 9D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rennes's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Rennes are on 2.11 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Rennes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Rennes in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 15W 13D 27L in their last 55 games (1.05 PPG), while Rennes have gone 30W 10D 15L in their last 55 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Rennes away?
Rennes's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.04 PPG; Rennes away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Clermont Foot or Rennes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Clermont Foot have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Rennes in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Rennes have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Sep 2021, when Rennes won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Clermont Foot's record when hosting Rennes specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Clermont Foot
0
Draws
4
Rennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Rennes?
From 6 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 2, Rennes have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Rennes last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2024, when Rennes 3-1 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Rennes?
Rennes have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Clermont Foot at 63%, Rennes at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Clermont Foot) and 56% (Rennes). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Rennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Rennes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Clermont Foot's games and 74% of Rennes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Clermont Foot vs Rennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Clermont Foot's matches and 56% of Rennes's.
Do Clermont Foot and Rennes tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Rennes in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Clermont Foot defy the odds to beat Rennes 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot beat Rennes 2-1 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.20 xG and Rennes 1.61 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Clermont Foot beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.79 / defence 1.19 against Rennes attack 1.01 / defence 1.04, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 28% | Draw 25% | Rennes 47%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Clermont Foot win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 49%, Rennes 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Rennes's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Rennes arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Clermont Foot winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.