Nantes 1-0 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nantes at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nantes vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Auxerre travel to Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau to take on Nantes. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 January 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Nantes — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nantes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nantes's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Nantes are significantly better at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Auxerre have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Auxerre have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Nantes 0.80 PPG, Auxerre 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Nantes in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Auxerre in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nantes 59% and Auxerre 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantes 44% | Auxerre 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 2.40 xG and Auxerre 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 1.101 / defence 0.990 | Auxerre attack 0.738 / defence 1.464. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.373. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.464 — this is suppressing Nantes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Nantes games / 16 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantes 68% | Draw 19% | Auxerre 13%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 1.47 | Draw 5.26 | Auxerre 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Nantes (68%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nantes as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.40 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Nantes 80% | Auxerre 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Jan 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 68% | Draw 19% | Auxerre 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 58% | xG Nantes 2.40 / Auxerre 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 1.101 / def 0.990 | Auxerre attack 0.738 / def 1.464 | league avg home 1.489 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: Nantes (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.40
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Auxerre xG
58%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantes vs Auxerre kick off?
Nantes vs Auxerre kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 January 2023 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What was the final score in Nantes vs Auxerre?
Nantes 1 - 0 Auxerre.
Where is Nantes vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What competition is Nantes vs Auxerre part of?
Nantes vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 68% chance of winning, Auxerre a 13% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Nantes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Nantes and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Nantes vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Auxerre?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nantes and Auxerre in?
Nantes (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. Auxerre (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nantes's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (1.46x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.40. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Nantes's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nantes Win
68%
1.48
19%
5.26
13%
7.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.40
Nantes xG
Total xG
3.40
1.00
Auxerre xG
1.48
68%
Home win
5.26
19%
Draw
7.46
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
9%
11.02
Win to Nil
25%
4.03
1%
82.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Nantes and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 2.40 expected goals for Nantes and 1.00 for Auxerre, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Auxerre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nantes come into this having played 54 games, going 17W 18D 19L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-D. The sample for Nantes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Auxerre sit at 1.54 PPG from 54 outings (22W 17D 15L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nantes on 1.28 PPG, Auxerre on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Nantes's home form reads 13W 8D 5L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.28 PPG overall — Nantes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Auxerre have taken 1.46 points per game from 26 outings (10W 8D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Nantes are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.37 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Auxerre in 65%.
Last 54 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantes and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 17W 18D 19L in their last 54 games (1.28 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 22W 17D 15L in their last 54 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantes at home or Auxerre away?
Nantes's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantes at home: 1.81 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nantes and Auxerre runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Nantes's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Nantes
2
Draws
1
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Auxerre?
From 6 meetings on record, Nantes have won 3, Auxerre have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Auxerre 0-0 Nantes.
Who has won more matches between Nantes and Auxerre?
Nantes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantes 58%, Auxerre 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Nantes) and 58% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Nantes have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantes play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Nantes's games and 65% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nantes vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Nantes's recent games and 58% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantes and Auxerre tend to score early?
Nantes have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nantes edge out Auxerre 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nantes beat Auxerre 1-0 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 2.40 xG and Auxerre 1.00 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Nantes fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Auxerre landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 1.10 / defence 0.99 against Auxerre attack 0.74 / defence 1.46, drawn from 54/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantes 68% | Draw 19% | Auxerre 13%, with Nantes to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 44%, Auxerre 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantes's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Auxerre's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nantes 1.28 PPG, Auxerre 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nantes win broke the near-deadlock. Nantes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.