Ajaccio 0-1 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ajaccio vs Reims fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ajaccio host Reims at Stade François Coty in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 11 January 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Ajaccio have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ajaccio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajaccio at Stade François Coty this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Reims — All Games: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Reims have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ajaccio at 1.40 PPG versus Reims's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Ajaccio in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Reims in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajaccio 29% versus Reims 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ajaccio 27% | Reims 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajaccio 1.04 xG and Reims 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajaccio attack 0.809 / defence 1.148 | Reims attack 0.823 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.339. Data: 17 Ajaccio games / 55 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajaccio 30% | Draw 29% | Reims 41%. Fair-value odds: Ajaccio 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Reims 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Reims as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reims offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Ajaccio 40% | Reims 70%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajaccio vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade François Coty • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 Jan 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajaccio 30% | Draw 29% | Reims 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Ajaccio 1.04 / Reims 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Ajaccio attack 0.809 / def 1.148 | Reims attack 0.823 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Reims (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Ajaccio xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Reims xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajaccio vs Reims kick off?
Ajaccio vs Reims kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 11 January 2023 at Stade François Coty.
What was the final score in Ajaccio vs Reims?
Ajaccio 0 - 1 Reims.
Where is Ajaccio vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stade François Coty.
What competition is Ajaccio vs Reims part of?
Ajaccio vs Reims is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Ajaccio vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Ajaccio a 30% chance of winning, Reims a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajaccio vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Ajaccio and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Ajaccio vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Reims?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ajaccio and Reims in?
Ajaccio (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Reims (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ajaccio's attack at 0.81x the league average against Reims's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Reims's attack versus Ajaccio's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
30%
3.32
29%
3.46
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Ajaccio xG
Total xG
2.31
1.26
Reims xG
3.32
30%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
9%
11.75
14%
6.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajaccio vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Ajaccio and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Ajaccio and 1.26 for Reims, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajaccio vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ajaccio's recent record stands at 26W 12D 17L from 55 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Ajaccio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reims, meanwhile, have gone 15W 22D 18L across 55 games — 1.22 PPG, with D-W-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ajaccio by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Reims heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ajaccio have managed 15W 4D 8L from 27 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Reims's away record stands at 7W 12D 8L across 27 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajaccio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ajaccio are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.15 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajaccio have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajaccio
Blended
Reims
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajaccio and Reims in coming into this match?
Ajaccio have gone 26W 12D 17L in their last 55 games (1.64 PPG), while Reims have gone 15W 22D 18L in their last 55 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajaccio at home or Reims away?
Ajaccio's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajaccio at home: 1.81 PPG; Reims away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Ajaccio or Reims been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Reims in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ajaccio
0
Draws
2
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Reims?
From 2 meetings on record, Ajaccio have won 0, Reims have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ajaccio and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2023, when Reims 1-0 Ajaccio.
Who has won more matches between Ajaccio and Reims?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ajaccio see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajaccio 30%, Reims 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Ajaccio) and 37% (Reims).
On the defensive side: Ajaccio keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Ajaccio have failed to score in 37% of games; Reims in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajaccio home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajaccio play Reims?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Ajaccio's recent matches and 59% of Reims's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajaccio vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Ajaccio's recent games and 37% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajaccio and Reims tend to score early?
Ajaccio have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Reims in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Reims edge out Ajaccio 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat Ajaccio 0-1 at Stade François Coty, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 1.04 xG and Reims 1.26 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ajaccio fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 0.81 / defence 1.15 against Reims attack 0.82 / defence 0.88, drawn from 17/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 30% | Draw 29% | Reims 41%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 27%, Reims 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajaccio's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Reims's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajaccio arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with Reims winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ajaccio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward. Reims (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.