Montpellier 0-0 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Montpellier at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Montpellier vs Reims fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Reims travel to Stade de la Mosson to take on Montpellier. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 April 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Montpellier stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Montpellier's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Stade de la Mosson this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Reims have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Reims away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Montpellier) versus 1.20 (Reims). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Montpellier, 0 for Reims and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2021, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Montpellier in-play and half-time data (31 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Reims in-play and half-time data (31 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Montpellier 48% versus Reims 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Montpellier 45% | Reims 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Montpellier 1.13 xG and Reims 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Montpellier attack 0.913 / defence 1.262 | Reims attack 0.700 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.200. Data: 31 Montpellier games / 31 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Montpellier 36% | Draw 31% | Reims 33%. Fair-value odds: Montpellier 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Reims 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Montpellier at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Montpellier offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Montpellier 40% | Reims 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Montpellier vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade de la Mosson • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Montpellier 36% | Draw 31% | Reims 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Montpellier 1.13 / Reims 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Montpellier attack 0.913 / def 1.262 | Reims attack 0.700 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Montpellier (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Montpellier xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Reims xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Montpellier vs Reims kick off?
Montpellier vs Reims kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at Stade de la Mosson.
What was the final score in Montpellier vs Reims?
Montpellier 0 - 0 Reims.
Where is Montpellier vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Mosson.
What competition is Montpellier vs Reims part of?
Montpellier vs Reims is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Montpellier vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Montpellier a 36% chance of winning, Reims a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Montpellier the favourite.
Will both teams score in Montpellier vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Montpellier and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Montpellier vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Reims?
Record (1 meetings): Montpellier 0W | Draws 1 | Reims 0W.
What form are Montpellier and Reims in?
Montpellier (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Reims (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Montpellier's attack at 0.91x the league average against Reims's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Reims's attack versus Montpellier's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Montpellier Win
36%
2.75
31%
3.26
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Montpellier xG
Total xG
2.19
1.06
Reims xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
13%
7.94
11%
9.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 11.9 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Montpellier vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Montpellier and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Montpellier and 1.06 for Reims, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Montpellier vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Montpellier come into this having played 31 games, going 12W 5D 14L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Reims sit at 1.16 PPG from 31 outings (8W 12D 11L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Montpellier on 1.32 PPG, Reims on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Montpellier's home form reads 7W 3D 6L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Reims have taken 1.12 points per game from 16 outings (4W 6D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Montpellier are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.10 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Montpellier
Current Season
Reims
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Montpellier and Reims in coming into this match?
Montpellier have gone 12W 5D 14L in their last 31 games (1.32 PPG), while Reims have gone 8W 12D 11L in their last 31 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Montpellier at home or Reims away?
Montpellier's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Montpellier at home: 1.50 PPG; Reims away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Montpellier or Reims been keeping clean sheets recently?
Montpellier have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Reims in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Montpellier's record when hosting Reims specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Montpellier
5
Draws
3
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Reims?
From 10 meetings on record, Montpellier have won 2, Reims have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Montpellier and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Montpellier 0-0 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Montpellier and Reims?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Montpellier 50%, Reims 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Montpellier) and 31% (Reims).
On the defensive side: Montpellier keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Reims in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Montpellier home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Montpellier play Reims?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Montpellier's recent matches and 50% of Reims's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Montpellier vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Montpellier's recent games and 31% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Montpellier and Reims tend to score early?
Montpellier have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Reims in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Montpellier's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Montpellier and Reims finished level at 0-0 at Stade de la Mosson, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Montpellier 1.13 xG and Reims 1.06 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Montpellier fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Reims landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Montpellier attack 0.91 / defence 1.26 against Reims attack 0.70 / defence 1.06, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Montpellier 36% | Draw 31% | Reims 33%, with Montpellier to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Montpellier 45%, Reims 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Montpellier's trading profile (31 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Reims's trading profile (31 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Montpellier 1.32 PPG, Reims 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Montpellier (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.