Estac Troyes 1-1 Strasbourg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Strasbourg at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Strasbourg travel to Stade de l'Aube to take on Estac Troyes. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 April 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Estac Troyes stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Estac Troyes at Stade de l'Aube this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Strasbourg — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Strasbourg's form when playing away from home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Strasbourg — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Estac Troyes, 0 for Strasbourg and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Estac Troyes trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games).
Strasbourg trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 55% versus Strasbourg 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 39% | Strasbourg 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 0.87 xG and Strasbourg 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.729 / defence 0.895 | Strasbourg attack 0.913 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.200. Estac Troyes's attack strength of 0.729 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 31 Estac Troyes games / 31 Strasbourg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 30% | Draw 34% | Strasbourg 36%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 3.33 | Draw 2.94 | Strasbourg 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Strasbourg as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Strasbourg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.85 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Estac Troyes 40% | Strasbourg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 30% | Draw 34% | Strasbourg 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 37% | xG Estac Troyes 0.87 / Strasbourg 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.729 / def 0.895 | Strasbourg attack 0.913 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Strasbourg (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Strasbourg xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg?
Estac Troyes 1 - 1 Strasbourg.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg part of?
Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 30% chance of winning, Strasbourg a 36% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Strasbourg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Estac Troyes and Strasbourg will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Strasbourg?
Record (1 meetings): Estac Troyes 0W | Draws 1 | Strasbourg 0W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Strasbourg in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Strasbourg (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Estac Troyes's attack at 0.73x the league average against Strasbourg's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Strasbourg's attack versus Estac Troyes's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Strasbourg Win
30%
3.33
34%
2.96
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
1.85
0.98
Strasbourg xG
3.33
30%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
11%
8.87
15%
6.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.8 | 15.5 | 7.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Strasbourg expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 0.98 for Strasbourg, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 31 outings, Estac Troyes have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 8W 8D 15L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Strasbourg's form line: 14W 10D 7L from 31 games, 1.68 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-D.
Put side by side, Strasbourg are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Estac Troyes.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Estac Troyes have posted 1.20 PPG from 15 outings (4W 6D 5L).
On the road, Strasbourg have gone 5W 6D 4L from 15 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Estac Troyes are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Strasbourg are on 1.68 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Strasbourg in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Current Season
Strasbourg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Strasbourg in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 8W 8D 15L in their last 31 games (1.03 PPG), while Strasbourg have gone 14W 10D 7L in their last 31 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Strasbourg away?
Strasbourg's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 1.20 PPG; Strasbourg away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Estac Troyes or Strasbourg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Strasbourg in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Estac Troyes and Strasbourg runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Estac Troyes's record when hosting Strasbourg specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Estac Troyes
3
Draws
0
Strasbourg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Strasbourg?
From 4 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 1, Strasbourg have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Strasbourg last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2023, when Estac Troyes 1-1 Strasbourg.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Strasbourg?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 53%, Strasbourg 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Estac Troyes and 40% for Strasbourg.
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Strasbourg in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Strasbourg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Strasbourg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 53% of Strasbourg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 40% of Strasbourg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Strasbourg tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Strasbourg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Estac Troyes and Strasbourg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes and Strasbourg finished level at 1-1 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 0.87 xG and Strasbourg 0.98 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.73 / defence 0.90 against Strasbourg attack 0.91 / defence 1.03, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 30% | Draw 34% | Strasbourg 36%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 39%, Strasbourg 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Strasbourg's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Strasbourg arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.