Metz 1-1 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Metz at 38%, yet in-form Clermont Foot provide a compelling counter-argument — this Metz vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Metz host Clermont Foot at Stade Saint-Symphorien in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Metz — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Metz's home record at Stade Saint-Symphorien: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Clermont Foot stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Clermont Foot have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Clermont Foot are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Metz have won 0, Clermont Foot 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Metz in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Metz 52% versus Clermont Foot 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Metz 52% | Clermont Foot 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Metz 1.24 xG and Clermont Foot 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Metz attack 0.721 / defence 1.296 | Clermont Foot attack 0.736 / defence 1.483. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.200. Metz's attack strength of 0.721 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Clermont Foot bring a strong defensive rating of 1.483 — this is suppressing Metz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Metz games / 31 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Metz 38% | Draw 29% | Clermont Foot 33%. Fair-value odds: Metz 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Clermont Foot 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Metz at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Clermont Foot (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Metz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Metz 60% | Clermont Foot 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Metz vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade Saint-Symphorien • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Metz 38% | Draw 29% | Clermont Foot 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Metz 1.24 / Clermont Foot 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Metz attack 0.721 / def 1.296 | Clermont Foot attack 0.736 / def 1.483 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Metz (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Metz xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Clermont Foot xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Metz vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Metz vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What was the final score in Metz vs Clermont Foot?
Metz 1 - 1 Clermont Foot.
Where is Metz vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What competition is Metz vs Clermont Foot part of?
Metz vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Metz vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Metz a 38% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Metz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Metz vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Metz and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Metz vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Clermont Foot?
Record (1 meetings): Metz 0W | Draws 1 | Clermont Foot 0W.
What form are Metz and Clermont Foot in?
Metz (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Clermont Foot (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Metz's attack at 0.72x the league average against Clermont Foot's defence at 1.48x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Metz's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Metz Win
38%
2.65
29%
3.43
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Metz xG
Total xG
2.38
1.15
Clermont Foot xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
12%
8.34
10%
10.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.6 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.1 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Metz vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Metz and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Metz and 1.15 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Metz vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Metz come into this having played 31 games, going 4W 11D 16L for 0.74 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Clermont Foot sit at 0.90 PPG from 31 outings (7W 7D 17L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Metz on 0.74 PPG, Clermont Foot on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Metz's home form reads 1W 6D 8L across 15 games on their own ground, a 0.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Clermont Foot have taken 0.93 points per game from 15 outings (4W 2D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Metz are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.00 scored and 1.94 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Metz
Current Season
Clermont Foot
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Metz and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Metz have gone 4W 11D 16L in their last 31 games (0.74 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 7W 7D 17L in their last 31 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Metz at home or Clermont Foot away?
Clermont Foot's away record (0.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Metz at home: 0.60 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Metz's record when hosting Clermont Foot specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Metz
3
Draws
0
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Clermont Foot?
From 6 meetings on record, Metz have won 3, Clermont Foot have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Metz and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Metz 3-1 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Metz and Clermont Foot?
Metz have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Metz 60%, Clermont Foot 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Metz) and 53% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Metz have failed to score in 40% of games; Clermont Foot in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Metz home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Metz play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Metz's recent matches and 33% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Metz vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Metz's recent games and 53% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Metz and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Metz have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Metz and Clermont Foot share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 32, as Metz and Clermont Foot drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 1.24 xG and Clermont Foot 1.15 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 0.72 / defence 1.30 against Clermont Foot attack 0.74 / defence 1.48, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Metz 38% | Draw 29% | Clermont Foot 33%, with Metz to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 52%, Clermont Foot 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Metz's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Metz 0.74 PPG, Clermont Foot 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Metz (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.