Reims 2-3 Rennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rennes at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reims vs Rennes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Reims host Rennes at Stade Auguste-Delaune II in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 April 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Reims stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Reims's home record at Stade Auguste-Delaune II: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
Rennes — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Rennes have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Rennes — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Reims have won 1, Rennes 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 2–0 with Reims winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Reims in-play tendencies (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Rennes in-play tendencies (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 47% versus Rennes 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Reims 33% | Rennes 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.17 xG and Rennes 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.879 / defence 0.949 | Rennes attack 1.190 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.130 / away 1.147. Data: 30 Reims games / 30 Rennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 33% | Draw 27% | Rennes 39%. Fair-value odds: Reims 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Rennes 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rennes are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rennes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Reims 40% | Rennes 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Rennes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune II • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 33% | Draw 27% | Rennes 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Reims 1.17 / Rennes 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.879 / def 0.949 | Rennes attack 1.190 / def 1.174 | league avg home 1.130 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Rennes (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Rennes xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Rennes kick off?
Reims vs Rennes kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What was the final score in Reims vs Rennes?
Reims 2 - 3 Rennes.
Where is Reims vs Rennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What competition is Reims vs Rennes part of?
Reims vs Rennes is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Rennes?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 33% chance of winning, Rennes a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Rennes?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Reims and Rennes will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Rennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Rennes?
Record (1 meetings): Reims 1W | Draws 0 | Rennes 0W.
What form are Reims and Rennes in?
Reims (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Rennes (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Reims's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Rennes's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Rennes's attack versus Reims's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
33%
3.02
27%
3.64
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Reims xG
Total xG
2.46
1.30
Rennes xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
9%
11.02
12%
8.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.1 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Rennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Reims and Rennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Reims and 1.30 for Rennes, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Rennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Reims come into this having played 30 games, going 8W 12D 10L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-L.
On the other side, Rennes sit at 1.77 PPG from 30 outings (16W 5D 9L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five.
Rennes carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Reims — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Reims's home form reads 4W 6D 4L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Rennes have taken 1.29 points per game from 14 outings (5W 3D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.77 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rennes's season.
The Goals Picture
Reims are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Rennes are on 2.13 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Rennes in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Current Season
Rennes
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Rennes in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 8W 12D 10L in their last 30 games (1.20 PPG), while Rennes have gone 16W 5D 9L in their last 30 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Rennes away?
Reims's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.29 PPG; Rennes away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Reims or Rennes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Rennes in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Reims and Rennes runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2023, when Rennes won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Reims's record when hosting Rennes specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Reims
0
Draws
4
Rennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Rennes?
From 8 meetings on record, Reims have won 4, Rennes have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Rennes last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2025, when Rennes 1-0 Reims.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Reims see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Rennes see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 43%, Rennes 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Reims) and 50% (Rennes).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Reims have failed to score in 36% of games; Rennes in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Rennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Rennes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Reims's recent matches and 50% of Rennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reims vs Rennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Reims's recent games and 50% of Rennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Rennes edge out Reims 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rennes beat Reims 2-3 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.17 xG and Rennes 1.30 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Reims beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rennes outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.88 / defence 0.95 against Rennes attack 1.19 / defence 1.17, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 33% | Draw 27% | Rennes 39%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 33%, Rennes 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Rennes's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Rennes arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Reims (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rennes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.