Reims 1-0 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Reims face Le Havre.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Auguste-Delaune plays host to Reims versus Le Havre in Ligue 1 (matchday 17). Kick-off: Wednesday 20 December 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Reims have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Reims's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Le Havre (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Le Havre have posted 1W 6D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Reims against 1.00 for Le Havre. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Reims goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 52% versus Le Havre 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 50% | Le Havre 33%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Reims surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Le Havre have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 42% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.35 xG and Le Havre 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.968 / defence 1.103 | Le Havre attack 0.788 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.032. Le Havre's attack rating of 0.788 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.90. Data: built from Reims's last 54 games and Le Havre's last 16.
Result probabilities: Reims 45% | Draw 32% | Le Havre 23%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.22 | Draw 3.08 | Le Havre 4.43. Reims hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reims at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reims if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 61% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Reims 50% (last 10 home games) | Le Havre 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 17 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 December 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 45% | Draw 32% | Le Havre 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Reims 1.35 / Le Havre 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.968 / def 1.103 | Le Havre attack 0.788 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Reims (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Reims xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Le Havre xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Reims vs Le Havre FAQs
What time does Reims vs Le Havre kick off?
Reims vs Le Havre kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Wednesday 20 December 2023 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Le Havre?
Reims 1 - 0 Le Havre.
Where is Reims vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Le Havre part of?
Reims vs Le Havre is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 17) (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 45% chance of winning, Le Havre a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Reims and Le Havre will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Reims vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Reims's attack rating (0.97) and Le Havre's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Le Havre's attack (0.79x) against Reims's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from Reims's last 54 games and Le Havre's last 16 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
45%
2.22
32%
3.08
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Reims xG
Total xG
2.25
0.90
Le Havre xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
18%
5.44
6%
17.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.8 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Reims vs Le Havre Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Reims and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Reims and 0.90 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Reims have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 19W 17D 18L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Le Havre's form line: 24W 22D 8L from 54 games, 1.74 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Reims against 1.74 for Le Havre. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Reims have posted 1.62 PPG from their last 26 home games (12W 6D 8L).
On the road, Le Havre have gone 10W 13D 3L from their last 26 away games — 1.65 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Reims are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.15 scored and 0.69 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
Reims (Home) vs Le Havre (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Reims
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Reims vs Le Havre Form FAQs
What form are Reims and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 19W 17D 18L in their last 54 games (1.37 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 24W 22D 8L in their last 54 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Le Havre away?
Le Havre's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.62 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Reims or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Le Havre in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Reims and Le Havre, the earliest from December 2023. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent in our data was on 19 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Reims won Le Havre 0-3 Reims on 10 Nov 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reims have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Le Havre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Reims
1
Draws
0
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Reims vs Le Havre H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Le Havre?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Reims have won 3, Le Havre have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Reims and Le Havre last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 January 2025: Reims 1-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Le Havre?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 50%, Le Havre 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Reims) and 35% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Le Havre in 46%; Le Havre in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Reims vs Le Havre Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Reims and Le Havre matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Reims's recent matches and 46% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Reims and Le Havre matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Reims's recent games and 35% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Le Havre matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Reims's recent matches and 50% of Le Havre's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Reims edge out Le Havre 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat Le Havre 1-0 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.35 xG and Le Havre 0.90 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Le Havre landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.97 / defence 1.10 against Le Havre attack 0.79 / defence 1.03, drawn from 54/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 45% | Draw 32% | Le Havre 23%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 50%, Le Havre 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Le Havre's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.37 PPG, Le Havre 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reims win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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