Metz 3-3 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lille at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Metz vs Lille fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Lille travel to Stade Saint-Symphorien to take on Metz. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 August 2021, 16:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Metz 0.44 xG and Lille 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Metz attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Lille attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.451 / away 1.269. Data: 0 Metz games / 0 Lille games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Metz 10% | Draw 36% | Lille 53%. Fair-value odds: Metz 10.00 | Draw 2.78 | Lille 1.89. Lille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.68. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.68 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Metz's lower xG of 0.44 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lille as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.68 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 24% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Metz vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade Saint-Symphorien • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Aug 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Metz 10% | Draw 36% | Lille 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 28% | xG Metz 0.44 / Lille 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Metz attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Lille attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.451 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Lille (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.44
Metz xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Lille xG
28%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Metz vs Lille kick off?
Metz vs Lille kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 8 August 2021 at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What was the final score in Metz vs Lille?
Metz 3 - 3 Lille.
Where is Metz vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What competition is Metz vs Lille part of?
Metz vs Lille is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Metz vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Metz a 10% chance of winning, Lille a 53% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Metz vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Metz and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Metz vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Lille?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Metz and Lille in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Metz's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Lille's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.44. The same calculation in reverse, Lille's attack versus Metz's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (0/0 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 21.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (19.9%), 0-2 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 56% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
10%
9.88
36%
2.75
53%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
23.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.6%
Draw
0 – 2
14.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.44
Metz xG
Total xG
1.68
1.24
Lille xG
9.88
10%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
1.87
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.52
72%
BTTS No
1.40
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
64%
1.55
Win to Nil
3%
34.15
34%
2.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.6 | 23.1 | 14.3 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.2 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Metz vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.8%.
How many goals are Metz and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 0.44 expected goals for Metz and 1.24 for Lille, a combined total of 1.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Metz vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Metz
Pre-Season
Lille
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when Lille won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Metz's record when hosting Lille specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Metz
3
Draws
3
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Lille?
From 6 meetings on record, Metz have won 0, Lille have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Metz and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Metz 0-0 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Metz and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Metz home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Metz and Lille share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 1, as Metz and Lille drew 3-3 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 0.44 xG and Lille 1.24 xG, a combined 1.68. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Metz beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lille outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Lille attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Metz 10% | Draw 36% | Lille 53%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.