Lyon 1-1 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Lyon take on Stade Brestois 29.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lyon and Stade Brestois 29 meet at Groupama Stadium in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 August 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lyon 0.71 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lyon attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.722 / away 1.023. Data: 0 Lyon games / 0 Stade Brestois 29 games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Lyon 21% | Draw 41% | Stade Brestois 29 38%. Fair-value odds: Lyon 4.76 | Draw 2.44 | Stade Brestois 29 2.63. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.71. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.71 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 21% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.71 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 24% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Groupama Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Aug 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lyon 21% | Draw 41% | Stade Brestois 29 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 36% | xG Lyon 0.71 / Stade Brestois 29 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Lyon attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.722 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Lyon xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Stade Brestois 29 xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 7 August 2021 at Groupama Stadium.
What was the final score in Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29?
Lyon 1 - 1 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Groupama Stadium.
What competition is Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Lyon a 21% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 38% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Lyon and Stade Brestois 29 will score (BTTS).
Will Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Stade Brestois 29?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lyon and Stade Brestois 29 in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lyon's attack rating (0.85) and Stade Brestois 29's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stade Brestois 29's attack (0.85x) against Lyon's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.5%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
21%
4.70
41%
2.43
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Lyon xG
Total xG
1.71
1.00
Stade Brestois 29 xG
4.70
21%
Home win
2.43
41%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
8%
12.78
19%
5.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.8%.
How many goals are Lyon and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Lyon and 1.00 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 1.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lyon
Pre-Season
Stade Brestois 29
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lyon have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Stade Brestois 29 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lyon
3
Draws
3
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Stade Brestois 29?
From 10 meetings on record, Lyon have won 4, Stade Brestois 29 have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lyon and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Lyon 2-1 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Lyon and Stade Brestois 29?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lyon home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Lyon and Stade Brestois 29 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Groupama Stadium, Regular Season - 1, as Lyon and Stade Brestois 29 drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 0.71 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.00 xG, a combined 1.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lyon 21% | Draw 41% | Stade Brestois 29 38%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.