Bordeaux 0-2 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Clermont Foot at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bordeaux vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Clermont Foot travel to Stade Matmut-Atlantique to take on Bordeaux. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 August 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 0.71 xG and Clermont Foot 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Clermont Foot attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.722 / away 1.275. Data: 0 Bordeaux games / 0 Clermont Foot games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 17% | Draw 37% | Clermont Foot 45%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 5.88 | Draw 2.70 | Clermont Foot 2.22. Clermont Foot hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (37%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Clermont Foot are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Aug 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 17% | Draw 37% | Clermont Foot 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Bordeaux 0.71 / Clermont Foot 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Clermont Foot attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.722 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Clermont Foot xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bordeaux vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Bordeaux vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 8 August 2021 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What was the final score in Bordeaux vs Clermont Foot?
Bordeaux 0 - 2 Clermont Foot.
Where is Bordeaux vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs Clermont Foot part of?
Bordeaux vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 17% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 45% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Bordeaux and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Bordeaux vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Clermont Foot?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bordeaux and Clermont Foot in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bordeaux's attack at 0.85x the league average against Clermont Foot's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Bordeaux's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 16.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
17%
5.78
37%
2.69
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
1.95
1.25
Clermont Foot xG
5.78
17%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
5%
20.08
22%
4.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 17.7 | 11.0 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.5 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Bordeaux and 1.25 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Pre-Season
Clermont Foot
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bordeaux and Clermont Foot runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Bordeaux
1
Draws
1
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Clermont Foot?
From 2 meetings on record, Bordeaux have won 0, Clermont Foot have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2022, when Clermont Foot 1-1 Bordeaux.
Who has won more matches between Bordeaux and Clermont Foot?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Clermont Foot cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Bordeaux.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot beat Bordeaux 0-2 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 0.71 xG and Clermont Foot 1.25 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Clermont Foot attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 17% | Draw 37% | Clermont Foot 45%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.